Batman faces two new villains each trying to grab some share of business in a marketplace dominated by The Dark Knight. Will Ferrell is back with his latest comedy Step Brothers from Sony while Fox counters with the thriller The X-Files: I Want to Believe. The Joker will sit back and laugh as he makes his two victims compete for the runnerup spot. Knight should face a steep decline, but will have no problem ruling the North American box office once again as more records are bracing to be smashed into bits.

The first in a trio of R-rated late-summer comedies hits theaters on Friday with Step Brothers. Ferrell and John C. Reilly reteam two years after their Talladega Nights became a $148M blockbuster and this time play slackers pushing 40 who must move in together when their single parents marry. Adam McKay, who directed Ferrell in the summer hits Talladega and Anchorman, helmed while comedy guru Judd Apatow produced. The marketplace certainly needs a star-driven comedy right now so the positioning for Step Brothers will help. Audiences have been bombarded with superhero and action films over the past month so some variety is needed.

But the R rating will hurt it especially with all the younger teens out of school and looking for a laugh. Sure past Apatow films like Superbad, Knocked Up, and The 40-Year-Old Virgin all worked, but they were much funnier films and had more buzz. Ferrell hit number one but still underperformed in February with the R-rated Semi-Pro which bowed to just $15.1M. Step Brothers should fly a bit higher thanks to a slightly funnier trailer, lack of comedy competition, and the busier July playtime. The Dark Knight of course will be a factor pulling away many potential customers, but the pseudo-siblings should snuggle into a second place debut. Step Brothers will have to find its audience fast since rival R-rated comedies Pineapple Express and Tropic Thunder both moved their releases up by two days from Friday to Wednesday bows on August 6 and 13, respectively. Launching in around 2,800 locations, Step Brothers may gross about $21M this weekend.


John C. Reilly and Will Ferrell are Step Brothers.
Fox is giving an unusually quiet launch to The X-Files: I Want to Believe, the second big-screen adventure adapted from the successful sci-fi television series that ran for nine seasons. David Duchovny and Gillian Anderson return as FBI agents Mulder and Scully while series creator Chris Carter takes over the director's chair from Rob Bowman who helmed 1998's The X-Files: Fight the Future. The PG-13 film involves the disappearance of a federal agent which prompts the two to return to the Bureau for a new investigation involving a psychic ex-priest played by Billy Connolly.

Believe plays out like a mildly entertaining extra-long episode of the show with a story that barely includes any actual science fiction and that's no way to energize old fans or even gain new ones. This is a TV property that has faded over the years and is no longer very relevant. Expect numbers closer to Speed Racer's rather than like Sex and the City's in this summer's TV-to-movies game. In the years since the Fox program signed off, the Batman franchise was reborn and stars like the Wills (Smith and Ferrell) have been providing new entertainment every year. All will be factors at the box office this weekend with the male-skewing X-Files audience.

The previous film bowed to $30.1M which would amount to $45M at today's prices. Many of those fans have tuned out and moved on with their lives. There's no doubt that The Dark Knight's second weekend will steal over $60M, maybe even more than $70M, away from the same folks that Fox is targeting for its action offering. Plus Believe has not had the big push that the studio gave the franchise a decade ago. Reviews are not very warm either. Awareness and excitement outside of the sci-fi fan base is not very high at all. A year ago this very weekend it scored a gigantic opening for the movie version of its other Sunday night Fox Network show The Simpsons. Lightning will not strike twice. Opening in 3,185 theaters, The X-Files: I Want to Believe could bow to around $19M.


Mulder and Scully are back in X-Files: I Want to Believe.