ROTTEN TOMATOES: Oscar Night Approaches; Who Will Win? Our Predictions Inside! Comments

Oscar Night Approaches; Who Will Win? Our Predictions Inside!

by RT Staff | February 22, 2007

Summary

There's two ways to predict the Oscars: (1) dissect the awards buzz, attempting to get a feel for the fickle machinations of the Academy voter. Or (2) use your powers of geek math to crunch box office numbers and awards statistics for some cold, hard facts. With both methods in full swing, here’s a rundown of the Internet's major Oscar predictions. Back to Article

(21-28 of 28 posts) | Reply

bigbrother writes:
on Feb 24 2007 01:31 PM

In reply to this comment (#856537)
Would Children of Men have qualified for this year? I know they have a time limit. It may have been to late to qualify for this years oscars and may just have to wait for next year.

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monkeyonaspring writes:
on Feb 24 2007 03:14 PM

In reply to this comment (#856522)
Just so you know Scorsese didn't direct Clockwork Orange or Pulp Fiction... I have no idea where you got that. Also DiCaprio was nominated for his work in Blood Diamond, not The Departed. Pay attention.

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Filmnatic writes:
on Feb 24 2007 09:42 PM

[b]Scorsese's Night[/b]
As a film student, and an avid moviegoer it is my fondest wish that meritocracy is the mindset of the Academy membership. I know that his earlier works (Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, and Goodfellas) were more deserving of being awarded, but it should be his night. He is, in my opinion one of the greatest living American filmmakers, if not the greatest. The Departed should win both Best Picture and Best Director. And, if I may add, for a picture to win for Best Picture and for the Academy to not reward the person whose efforts it took to make it deserving of the distinction with the Best Director award is sheer tragedy.

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bigbrother writes:
on Feb 25 2007 05:13 AM

In reply to this comment (#856540)
Maybe he was referring to the fact that all the mentioned films were exceptionally violent. I find it hard to believe anyone posting on a movie chat website wouldn't know Kubrick directed A Clockwork Orange or Tarantino directed Pulp Fiction.

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Boss Fan writes:
on Feb 25 2007 11:00 AM

I wrote this article for my college paper. Might as well cut and paste it if I'm going to share in this forum (I'll spare you all the journalistic intros and conclusions and just post the main content). And, that's right, I did not think Babel or Little Miss Sunshine were very good (hate if you like, but to each his own), but I DO see them as the two front runners, however, i don't think there is a clear-cut picture winner.

Best Picture

Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

Should Win: Letters From Iwo Jima
Will Win: It’s Anybody’s Guess

The best-picture race is wide open this year as all the nominees have a legitimate shot and there is no clear-cut favorite; which is a good thing in terms of making the race exciting for viewers. But while a competitive batch of nominees may make for a fun final category of the night, there are problems here: First and foremost is the fact that Babel and Little Miss Sunshine aren’t very good movies (in my opinion – and many others’). For every person that loved them, there seems to be several that hated them, yet, if you look at the amount of awards the two films have collected leading up to the Oscars, the race is really between these two. Still, is the Academy really trying to say that these two strained entrees are better films or more deserving of a nomination than United 93, Flags of Our Fathers, or Children of Men? The Departed, while the crowd-pleaser (and highest grosser) of the bunch, is really just a popcorn movie that parlayed glowing reviews and the Academy’s shame of having yet to honor director Martin Scorsese into a ton of nominations. I would say The Departed has a chance at an upset, but whichever film wins will feel like an upset in this category. If you look at the picks from critics in various newspapers and magazines, they all seem to have a different idea about which one of these five nominees will win. Letters from Iwo Jima and The Queen are the only two nominees that really feel like Oscar-type films. Letters has the most over-all positive reviews of the batch, and is the type of dark, emotionally heavy history lesson Oscar likes to award; but it is also the one fewest people have seen. However, Clint Eastwood’s name, and the fact that he is almost sure to lose to Scorsese in the directing category, not to mention that the film is just flat-out excellent, may push Letters to a win. It is far and away the best of the bunch.

Best Director

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93

Should Win: Eastwood
Will Win: Scorsese

If there is such a thing as a ‘sure thing’ this year it seems to be that Martin Scorsese will finally win the prize that has (inexplicably) eluded him his entire career – despite five previous nominations. Here’s the thing: He deserves it, but he doesn’t deserve it for this movie. Scorsese could do a movie like The Departed in his sleep. Many hailed the film as his “return to form” after historical dramas and biopics like Gangs of New York and The Aviator, but he should have won long ago for a better movie. The push to get him this award has led to some serious over-hyping of a fine, but in no-way special film. Eastwood has it all over Scorsese with Letters From Iwo Jima - and, actually, its companion piece, Flags of Our Fathers, as well. He made two great films this year, and just the very notion that he attempted – and accomplished – such a feat of exploring a story from two different perspectives makes him the year’s best director. Letters is a tremendous film on an emotional level, but on a technical level, it is astonishing. And that credit is all Eastwood’s. But he has won twice, and the last time was just two years ago. To tell you the truth, I’d even like to see Paul Greengrass get this award for United 93. If you break down what the term “best director” means – as a craft and skill – 93 might have been the most perfectly made film of the year. It really should be nominated for Best Picture. But Greengrass doesn’t stand a chance (though there is always room for an upset). So I say let Marty finally have it. He should have won it 10, 20 or even 30 years ago, but better late than never. Plus, the backlash of an Eastwood win, or more accurately – a Scorsese loss, would be so strong that a win for Eastwood may end up ultimately feeling like a loss when people start protesting that Scorsese was robbed or the Academy has it in for him. Give this award to Scorsese and best picture to Letters and all will be made right and fair.

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O’Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

Should Win: Whitaker
Will Win: Whitaker

Like Scorsese, Peter O’Toole has been nominated several times and never won. He received an honorary, lifetime achievement Oscar a year ago, but he deserves to win the real deal. The problem is, like Scorsese, he deserves it for past efforts. Not to take anything away from his extraordinary performance, but Forest Whitaker, another veteran actor who is finally, nearly 30 years into his career, getting his due, is simply better. If Whitaker weren’t here, O’Toole would have it in the bag. I’d be happy with a win for either of them.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Dijmon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Mark Whalberg, The Departed

Should Win: Whalberg
Will Win: Murphy

In a year where Oscar may be trying to make up for past wrongs (Scorsese, O’Toole), Murphy, who has never been nominated, but has long been one of the biggest stars in the world, has collected so many trophies from other award shows that it would be tough for the Academy to justify snubbing him. Plus, he was dynamic as hell in his role, one of the best he has had maybe ever, but surely since his ‘80s heyday. Alan Arkin seems to be the only chance of a Murphy upset, but I say give it to Whalberg. He and Alec Baldwin’s live-wire performances were the most enjoyable thing about The Departed. In fact, Baldwin, who lately seems like he can do no wrong (check out 30 Rock Thursday nights on NBC) deserves a nomination here just as much as Whalberg. But give the Academy credit, they could have ignored them both and just nominated Jack Nicholson for the umpteenth time.

Best Actress

Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

Should Win: Mirren or Winslet
Will Win: Mirren

Admittedly, I don’t have much personally invested in this category. Mirren seems to be a shoe-in here. Like Forest Whitaker, she has won nearly every award in her category leading up to the Oscars. And she was terrific. However, so was Winslet, and she has been passed over before. Both are more than deserving. As long as Meryl Streep doesn’t get it, I’m good. (I have nothing against her, she is one of our finest actresses, but to even be nominated for a film and performance as shrill as hers proves that as long the Academy needs a go-to nominee in a weak year for Best Actress competition, and she has made a film that year, Streep will get a perfunctory nod.)

Best Supporting Actress

Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchet, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

Should Win: Hudson or Barraza
Will Win: Hudson

I care about this category even less than Best Actress, but it is the more interesting of the two because a case can be made for all the nominees. However, like the other three acting categories, this one has a clear-cut favorite that has been winning in the category all year: Hudson. So, if anyone has a shot against her, who would it be? Well, one of the few things that rang true about the over-praised Babel was Adriana Barraza’s performance. If the Academy is going to award Little Miss Sunshine (though they shouldn’t) little Abigail Breslin was both the title and the heart and soul of the film. Cate Blanchet just won in this category two years ago for The Aviator and if someone from Babel has a shot here it is Barraza, not Kikuchi. No matter though; a win for Jennifer Hudson is pretty much a forgone conclusion.

In the documentary category look for Al Gore’s film to win and Cars will probably take the Best Animated film (though Happy Feat is a contender). Best foreign film will be (and should be) Pan’s Labyrinth, while Pirates of the Caribbean 2 seems like a good bet to hog a majority of the technical awards. Little Miss Sunshine and The Departed will most likely win in their respective screenplay categories (though Borat could upset The Departed).

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ek.payne writes:
on Feb 25 2007 06:26 PM

[b]I also found another interesting award going on[/b]
POPsnail Presents the POPscars: The New Software Award for Shareware and Freeware

Best iPod, PSP, Zune Software in a Leading Role
Best Security Software in a Supporting Role
Best Software Provider
Best DVD Software
Best Audio Converters
Best Language Software

and many more awards which are related to appriated Oscar awards

http://www.popsnail.com/specials/POPsnail-Presents-the-POPscars.html

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fynejackie writes:
on Feb 26 2007 06:16 PM

Eddie Murphy was robbed, he should had won.

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filmfanatic3001 writes:
on Feb 28 2007 05:02 PM

[b]Try This On For Size[/b]
I've developed my own way as to figure out who will win what award. I need to find a better way to present this theory.

Pay attention to the presenter for a particular award. If the presenter has starred with any actor from a particular film odds are that film will win.

Example:

Kate Winslet presented the oscar for best film editing.

The winner was The Departed.

Leonardo Di Caprio starred in The Departed.

Leo and Kate starred in Titanic together.

I haven't perfected this yet BUT I would say its been proven to work 70 - 80% of the time.

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