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News
Box Office Guru Preview: Vince & Reese Offer Holiday Cheer
Also, Australia, Transporter 3 try to gorge on the holiday leftovers.
by Gitesh Pandya | November 26, 2008
Discuss Article

The Thanksgiving holiday weekend sees a wide variety of films in the multiplexes giving all kinds of moviegoers something to see over the extended five-day session. Leading the trio of star-driven new releases opening on Wednesday is the holiday comedy Four Christmases which is joined by the historical epic Australia and the action entry Transporter 3. Twilight will try to spend a second frame at number one and will come off of a huge opening while fellow sophomore Bolt aims for a much stronger hold. Despite the selection of offerings, the overall box office will have to work hard to match last year's turkey frame when eleven different films grossed more than $7M each over the Friday-to-Sunday period.

Hoping to make people forget Rendition, Reese Witherspoon returns to her bread and butter - comedy - by pairing up with Vince Vaughn in Four Christmases which is the widest of the new openers and looks to have the best shot at making a play for the number one spot. The PG-13 laugher about a couple that must visit the homes of all 4 divorced parents on the same day should rake in impressive numbers this weekend. The stars certainly sell in this genre, the concept is appealing, and the holiday theme is just want people are looking for right now. Vince and Reese give the film broad appeal to many age groups and to both genders. Plus moviegoers are looking for escapism and want to spend their money to have a good time. Reviews may be bad, but effective trailers and commercials promise laughs and that's all this film needs to make its case to the voting public.

Competition is not too strong. Role Models is the only other live-action comedy doing any business right now. Twilight and Australia will split the female vote, but June Carter can stand up to those chicks. Four Christmases is about as mainstream as any film out in theaters this weekend gets and by pleasing all the different audience segments, it should be a winner with large groups. Teens and young adults will be at the core of the success. The New Line title will be released by Warner Bros. in more than 3,200 locations and might find itself in the neighborhood of $26M over the Friday-to-Sunday period and $36M over five days.


Reese and Vince in Four Christmases

Hugh Jackman was just named People magazine's Sexiest Man Alive. Could it be coincidence that his new film opens at the same time? That pic would be Australia starring the X man opposite Nicole Kidman in a historical epic that mixes a love story with a little history lesson on that land Down Under around the start of World War II. The PG-13 film from director Baz Luhrmann is an old school piece of filmmaking and should skew older and more female. But the big-budget Fox production has five factors working against it at the box office.

First, the subject matter is a problem since Americans really aren't very interested in learning about the history of Australia. Second, these stars may grace every magazine cover around, but they often do not sell tickets unless the project is truly exciting. Also competition is a factor since Four Christmases is clearly the more fun option this weekend and it has more cross-gender appeal to satisfy couples. Add in a running time that nears three hours when including trailers plus reviews that can be described as mixed at best, and it's easy to see that it will be an uphill battle.

The kickoff of holiday shopping over Thanksgiving weekend also will help to keep women over 30 busy during the coming days. But the long weekend does give people extra time on their hands so Australia may reach its audience over time and not immediately in its first day like a certain vampire love story. Fox needn't worry as Yanks represent the gravy for this movie. The bulk of the business will come from the U.K., Europe, Asia, and Australia and this particular slice of entertainment will sell much better outside of North America. Landing in 2,617 theaters, Australia might take in about $15M over the weekend and $22M over the Wednesday-to-Sunday period.


Nicole Kidman and Hugh Jackman in Australia

Jason Statham returns in his signature franchise with Transporter 3 which took a detour off the Fox lot and settled into Lionsgate territory. The shift in distributors makes sense given the new home's strong track record with films that skew towards young men. The PG-13 actioner has a very specific audience in mind and is not likely to convert new followers. Transporter 2 bowed three years ago with $16.5M over the Friday-to-Sunday portion of its four-day Labor Day opening weekend, although Fox launched it in 700 more theaters than what Lionsgate has in store this week with the new installment. Statham's last pic Death Race debuted to $12.6M in August. Transporter 3 will no doubt pull in a large share of its five-day gross in the first two days meaning that comparing Friday-to-Sunday takes across various Statham flicks would not tell a real story. Quantum of Solace will provide some direct competition, but overall the film should be welcomed given all the female-skewing films filling up multiplexes. Landing in 2,626 locations, Transporter 3 may debut with a $14M weekend and $22M across five days.


Jason Statham and some unfortunate extra in Transporter 3

For the first time in five years a woman directed the number one film at the box office thanks to Catherine Hardwicke's Twilight dominating the multiplexes last weekend. A disproportionately large part of the fan base came out on its opening day which accounted for half of the weekend bow. That signals a steep sophomore decline but Friday's holiday will help to prevent a ridiculously hefty dropoff. New films from Reese and Nicole could pull away the vampire love story's female audience too. A 60% fall could result giving Twilight about $28M for the Friday-Sunday span and around $115M after ten days.

The superspy known as Bond was met with a crushing 60% decline last weekend in its second mission but should stabilize this week and pull in some dollars from older adults that have more leisure time due to the holiday. The new releases should all have some impact though. Still, a 40% drop could occur putting Quantum of Solace at roughly $16M for the frame and $136M after 17 days.

Bolt had a slower than expected start last weekend but Disney is hoping that its crowd was just waiting for the turkey frame to go out and see the TV star pooch. Family films routinely have the lowest declines over Thanksgiving thanks to strong Friday sales so a 20% weekend dip may be in order. Declines for recent animated flicks during this particular holiday include 16% for Bee Movie, 11% for Happy Feet, and 15% for Chicken Little. That would leave Bolt, which seems like a less liked piece of entertainment, with around $21M over three days and a respectable ten-day start of $57M.

LAST YEAR: Disney's princess comedy Enchanted ruled the weekend which was the post-Thanksgiving frame as overall ticket sales were sliced in half compared to the previous holiday session which fell earlier on the calendar. The Amy Adams hit grossed $16.4M and was followed by fellow holdovers Beowulf with $8.2M, This Christmas with $7.9M, and Hitman with $6M. Debuting in fifth was the Hayden Christiansen thriller Awake with a weak $5.9M on its way to $14.4M for MGM.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com

Related Items
Movie: Australia
Transporter 3
Celeb: Reese Witherspoon
Vince Vaughn
Hugh Jackman
Nicole Kidman
Jason Statham
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Comments (1-20 of 21 posts) | Reply
ledawg
ledawg writes:
on Nov 26 2008 04:28 PM

The mediocre "Twilight" will take the box-office again. Which is better than the horrible looking "Four Christmases". And no, I haven't seen "Twilight", and yes, that means I have no say. But who cares.

(Reply to this)
tomwaitsjr
tomwaitsjr writes:
on Nov 26 2008 04:42 PM

ledawg,

It is perfectly acceptable for you to dis twilight, just as it's every teste powered man to hate Sex and the City and horseface. . .

The main thing that confuses me about the Christmas #$#$ film, is they emphasise Vaugh instead of Witherspoon. I saw her on Letterman, what a great gal. And can she act! See her in Freeway, then Walk the Line then Pleasentville. brilliant. Must be some kind of chauvinistic thing, because Vaughn has No where near the talent that Witherspoon has had since she was young.

MOST Christmas films suck. they should re-release Christmas Story. . . it'll shoot your eye out. . . ho ho HO.



(Reply to this)
jokerboy1991
jokerboy1991 writes:
on Nov 26 2008 04:46 PM

I just saw Australia and Milk. I thought Milk was great and probably Gust Van Sant's best movie, I think its got oscars all over it especially Penn, and the movie is kind of a tear jerker. Now for Australia, I had high hopes for it but I lowered my expectations before seeing it because of the reviews and yet I was still disappointed. I thought AUSTRALIA was kind of messy, a little too cheesy at times, at times the CGI was weak (cattle/cliff scene) and Nicole Kidman started out wooden but I did love the visuals and I think it is visually original, I thought Jackman was great, the movie looks great, and there are some great scenes but overall the movie felt like patchwork with bad editing, also I thought the whole war thing came abruptly during the movie. I overall did enjoy Australia, but I am curious on how it will do at the box office. Milk-10/10, Australia-7.5/10.

(Reply to this)
wordweaver12
wordweaver12 writes:
on Nov 26 2008 06:00 PM

Yay for Reese winning an oscar and then silencing her critics with meaty roles such as **** Christmases which enables her to show her acting range and versatility as a seasoned actress. Uh huh!

For those we expected oscar buzz for Australia, its time to acknowledge the hopelessness of that dream.


(Reply to this)
tomwaitsjr
tomwaitsjr writes:
on Nov 26 2008 06:13 PM

In reply to this comment (#2154228)
wordweaver,

Thanks for your post, it cracked me up. Yah, it seems once you win an oscar, you can go make films like Cuba Gooding Jr., and Maria tomeai *until recently, now she actually is in good films. There might as well be an oscar curse for best supporting actress. . .

But, Witherspoon is phenomenol, but not ascendant enough for me to watch a film just because she is in it. that spot for actress to me is reserved for Audrey Tautou. . . HAVE YOU SEEN PRICELESS! BRILLIANT! Just came out on DVD. BRILLIANT!


(Reply to this)
jokerboy1991
jokerboy1991 writes:
on Nov 26 2008 07:49 PM

In reply to this comment (#2154228)
LOL ok I was wrong about it being epic instead it ended up being sloppy. But I still say it will pick up some oscar nods like for Best Special Effects, Production Design, Costume Design, Cinematography, maybe original score, and hell I wouldn't be surprised if Hugh Jackman picked up a nomination for Best Actor.

(Reply to this)
AntonChigurh
AntonChigurh writes:
on Nov 26 2008 09:50 PM

Looks like the theatre has the biggest turkey dinner yet. I hate Reese Witherspoon and her crimson chin, and what happened to Nicole Kidman's career? Kidman and Witherspoon schould have dinner with oneanother and discuss why they deserved their oscar's in the first place.

(Reply to this)
wordweaver12
wordweaver12 writes:
on Nov 26 2008 11:24 PM

@ AntonChigurh

How dare you put Kidman and Witherspoon in the same category? Kidman may have made some bad movie choices but saying that she didn't deserve an Oscar is going way out of line buddy. Nicole didn't pop out of nowhere and win an Oscar; she slowly and steadily built an impressive resume with challenging and different roles. Her portrayal of Woolf was a culmination of all her years of hard work and the award was well deserved.

WItherspoon on the other hand hasn't shown such maturity in acting or even range. The most she has done is twitch her head and sound annoying in Legally Blonde...oh yeah and lip sync June Carter's songs and win an oscar for it. Lol lol, I kid I kid. WItherspoon is an ok actress but oscar worthy? I don't think so.


(Reply to this)
Almost.Famous
Almost.Famous writes:
on Nov 26 2008 11:56 PM

Stop making these lame family christmas romantic comedys there so annyoing! Blah! Too bad for australia. it hought that had potential. And for milk wow! That came out of nowhere.

(Reply to this)
Sulaco2k
Sulaco2k writes:
on Nov 27 2008 02:55 AM

Milk's the only thing worth seeing this weekend and sadly for me the theaters around here won't be screening it due to a lack of explosions and 'christian' values. I'm choking on the hypocrisy of that...

(Reply to this)
wordweaver12
wordweaver12 writes:
on Nov 27 2008 08:40 AM

I'm really not enthusiastic about Milk but it would be interesting to see Sean Penn and Franco make out...very interesting indeed. Penn has always appeared to be this macho and manly man so it would interesting to see him slip into a whole new dimension with this movie

Can't wait for Cadillac Records even though I doubt it will be coming to my area...we'll see.


(Reply to this)
Kathryn M.
Kathryn M. writes:
on Nov 27 2008 12:27 PM

I signed up, Boys, just to say that Four Christmases is one of the worst movies I have seen in a long, long time. I think the director and writer must dislike Christmas and it shows. I like a funny movie--Chevy Chase's Christmas Vacation, for example--but this movie was chock full of unbelievable characters--so over-the-top, so, so...hateful and mean-spirited--so many redneck stereotypes that it made Jeff Foxworthy's jokes pale to extinction. The baby jokes, the fat jokes, the mean physical comedy sight gags, the spite jokes, the Christian jokes, the sex jokes--eeeyech NOT funny. I was hoping for a Love, Actually, but instead got "Who took the fun out of Dysfunctional"--I almost wept with rage and disappointment because I gave up seeing "Happy Go Lucky" for this rotten Thanksgiving TURKEY. And by the way, Vince Vaughn is NOT sexy--and neither is Reese Witherspoon. The only good acting in this film was given by Jon Voigt.

(Reply to this)
Kathryn M.
Kathryn M. writes:
on Nov 27 2008 12:32 PM

And now that this is off my mind--I saw Milk, too. Good acting, but I'm tired of the Hollywood-Guiltrip movies--from anti-war, to anti--whatever. I like Sean Penn (as a director--Into the Wild) and as an actor (Dead Man Walking), but he is such an annoying piece-of-work off screen that I found that now I can't divorce his real personality with that of the role he's playing.

Australia is very old-fashioned, but at least it had characters that you could actually like. It's not going to be a whiz-bag success, but it's fine.


(Reply to this)
RE4P3R
RE4P3R writes:
on Nov 27 2008 12:54 PM

Thanks for the review, jokerboy19991.

Unfortunately, my theater was not playing Milk. I'll see if it pops up in the following weeks because I'm really looking forward to it.


(Reply to this)
tomwaitsjr
tomwaitsjr writes:
on Nov 27 2008 02:16 PM

is MILK a double-entendre for . . . well, ya know. . .

(Reply to this)
tomwaitsjr
tomwaitsjr writes:
on Nov 27 2008 02:56 PM

hey, are you guys saying Franco get's a Milk moustach in this film?

*runs away*


(Reply to this)
ledawg
ledawg writes:
on Nov 27 2008 07:57 PM

HA! Excellent tomwaitsjr, a Milk moustache.

(Reply to this)
sugarflowlistical77
sugarflowlistical77 writes:
on Nov 27 2008 08:22 PM

Reese Witherspoon? Are you ****ing kidding me? She is a horrible actress with less personality than a cadaver, the forehead of a sickly japanese chin dog and a corrosively perky voice and hollow demeanor. While she's not the most overrated actress working in films today, I am baffled by her fame and continued career.
And Nicole Kidman has been excellent in a great many movies, but she's had so much botox that she can no longer emote with her face.


(Reply to this)
tomwaitsjr
tomwaitsjr writes:
on Nov 27 2008 09:12 PM

sugar,

What do you think of Witherspoon in the edgy Freeway, or the satirical Election?

I may be biased because I loved the last hour of Freeway so much, starting right where she asks Keifer Sutherland

"Do you believe in Jesus as your personal Lord and Savior?"

"yes"

BLAM! BLAM! BLAM!

. . .

BLAM!


(Reply to this)
wordweaver12
wordweaver12 writes:
on Nov 27 2008 10:39 PM

"tomwaitsjr writes:
on Nov 27 2008 02:16 PM

is MILK a double-entendre for . . . well, ya know. . ."



LMAO!! LMAO!! that was hella funny. I was having a bad evening so thanks for cheering me up.


(Reply to this)
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