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Box Office Guru Preview: Go, Joe!
Real American Heroes take on Julie and Julia, Perfect Getaway for box office crown.
by Gitesh Pandya | August 06, 2009
Discuss Article

Some real American heroes look to storm the box office this weekend as Paramount unleashes its latest toy franchise film G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra. Sony counters with the culinary experience of Julie & Julia while Universal goes after some chills and thrills with A Perfect Getaway. The top 10 films should see a reasonable gain from last year.

Let's be honest, three years ago would anyone have thought that Hasbro would be the producer of one of the biggest films of all time? Hot off the heels of the mega-success, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen comes the latest from the famed toy company, G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra. The film has a few similarities to the original Transformers: a somewhat recognizable cast without any major superstars; a director who is known for helming big-budget action flicks; and both films are based on a hugely popular toy from the 80s. Of course, that's where the similarities end. Back in the summer of 2007, Transformers burst on to the scene over the 4th of July holiday, with a $70.5M weekend debut and a massive $155.4M from its Tuesday opening. Anticipation isn't nearly as high for this new franchise hopeful.

Dennis Quaid, Channing Tatum, Marlon Wayans and Sienna Miller star in the special effects actioner, which opens on around 3,500 screens this weekend. With Funny People underperforming last weekend and no other true action films geared to teens having been released since Revenge of the Fallen, G.I. Joe has a fairly clear playing field to itself. Competition from the other new releases will be virtually nil, which means G.I. Joe has a decent shot of opening with around $48M this weekend, and could go even higher with good word of mouth.


G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra

Academy darlings Meryl Streep and Amy Adams headline the dramedy Julie & Julia, directed by Nora Ephron. Based on the bestselling novel about a woman who sets out to complete an entire Julia Child cookbook in a year, the two leads don't actually have any scenes together, which makes for a tricky marketing campaign. However, this type of adult drama hasn't been well represented this summer and having Streep play an icon such as Child is a casting coup. And Adams is an up and coming actress who is slowly building a following of her own. Opening on approximately 2,300 screens, Julie & Julia could make around $18M this weekend.


Meryl Streep as Julia Child in Julie and Julia

Steve Zahn and Milla Jovovich celebrate their honeymoon in the thriller A Perfect Getaway. With a title that might lead one to believe this is a movie filled with car chases, Getaway has its work cut out for it this weekend. The trailers have been decent, but show nothing to separate it from the thousands of other thrillers that have been released over the years. People looking for real chills could very well be waiting for the tag team sequels at the end of the month in Halloween 2 and The Final Destination. Date crowds still have The Ugly Truth as a choice. And most teens will be flocking to G.I. Joe. So who is left for this film? Opening on around 2,000 screens, look for A Perfect Getaway to reach the $7M mark this weekend and fade quickly into the sunset.


Milla Jovovich and Steve Zahn in A Perfect Getaway

Last weekend's champ Funny People debuted much softer than anticipated. Reviews have been mixed and word of mouth hasn't been solid. With no real breakout moments from the movie, there isn't much reason for people to pay good money to see this on the big screen when they can enjoy it in the comfort of their own homes in a few months. And overly long running time also doesn't help matters. Look for the Adam Sandler/Judd Apatow creation to drop around 50% this weekend to $11.5M, bringing its cume to $43M.

After a massive opening day, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince has been performing almost identically to the previous film in the series, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix. The addition of IMAX screens helped ease the fall last weekend, and another small decline should be in store for this weekend. A drop of 38% this weekend would give the top grossing franchise in history another $11M, raising the Half-Blood Prince total to $275M.

Also opening this weekend in limited release from Overture Films is Paper Heart, starring Charlyne Yi and Michael Cera. The Sundance award winner for best screenplay follows Yi as she searches for the meaning of love in mock-documentary style. Strong reviews should lead to a terrific per screen average.

LAST YEAR: For the fourth straight weekend the juggernaut known as The Dark Knight stood head and shoulders above the rest, grossing $26.1M boosting the 24-day total to an astounding $441.6M. In second place was Seth Rogen/James Franco starrer Pineapple Express with $23.2M bringing its total from its Wednesday opening to $41.3M. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor fell one place to number three with $16.5M. Fourth place belonged to the girls of The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 which debuted with $10.6M. And rounding out the top 5 was the Will Ferrell comedy Step Brothers with $9.1M.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com

Related Items
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Julie & Julia
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Celeb: Milla Jovovich
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Michael Cera
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Comments (1-20 of 22 posts) | Reply
isotonic
isotonic writes:
on Aug 06 2009 05:39 PM

It's funny that G.I. Joe was marketed as "A real American hero" in the states, but the rest of the world got "G.I. Joe: International Hero". Those crazy marketing whores...

(Reply to this)
darrinsgoodman
darrinsgoodman writes:
on Aug 06 2009 05:44 PM

i think g.i. joe will be fun like transformers was. no one is going to go see it for any other reason then to see something blow up - i so need an escape like this movie this weekend lol

(Reply to this)
Bigbrother
Bigbrother writes:
on Aug 06 2009 05:46 PM

Oh well, 59% now. It was a good ride while it lasted. Still gonna go see because every critic seems to agree it's fun. Some think mindless and derivative fun, but fun none the less.

(Reply to this)
Chris B.
Chris B. writes:
on Aug 06 2009 05:53 PM

been waiting for G.I. Joe for awhile and already got my ticket. so excited!!

(Reply to this)
Paints Hz Shirt Red
Paints Hz Shirt Red writes:
on Aug 06 2009 06:09 PM

now we know why the critics didnt have a chance to screen it.

(Reply to this)
Eyes On Today
Eyes On Today writes:
on Aug 06 2009 06:11 PM

I got G.I. Joe making above 50 mil this weekend with no other movie competing. I am sad to see more people are not giving Funny People a chance. Not only is it hilarious, Adam Sandler gives the best performance he ever has. G.I. Joe will be fun, but if you want a "real american hero" movie, go see The Hurt Locker. That was the best movie of the year so far.

(Reply to this)
Boxman
Boxman writes:
on Aug 06 2009 06:58 PM

1. G.I. Joe 50-60 million
2.Funny People 13 million
3. Julia and Julia 12 million
4. Perfect Getaway 10 million
5. Harry Potter 6 8 million


(Reply to this)
Boxman
Boxman writes:
on Aug 06 2009 07:01 PM

1. G.I. Joe 50-60: million
2.Funny People:13 million
3. Julia and JuliaP: 12 million
4. Perfect Getaway: 10 million
5. Harry Potter 6: 8 million

Well that's my guess


(Reply to this)
ledawg1138
ledawg1138 writes:
on Aug 06 2009 07:45 PM

In reply to this comment (#2533920)
Double post!

(Reply to this)
Rajkumar A.
Rajkumar A. writes:
on Aug 06 2009 07:50 PM

Waiting for the "District 9"...Must watch movie of the 2009

(Reply to this)
Canuck666
Canuck666 writes:
on Aug 06 2009 07:50 PM

1. G.I. Joe 55-60 million
2. Perfect Getaway: 12 million
3. Julie and Julia: 11 million
4. Harry Potter 6: 10 million
5. Funny People 9 million

My 2 cents anyway.


(Reply to this)
man in the water
man in the water writes:
on Aug 06 2009 08:12 PM

G.I. Joe: 60 milliom
Julie & Julia: 20 million
Harry Potter: 13 million
Funny People: 11 million
Prefect Getaway: 9 million.

I despised the marketing for A Perfect Getaway. That must have been the worst maketing ever, they actually TOLD us there is a twist at the end of the movie


(Reply to this)
ledawg1138
ledawg1138 writes:
on Aug 06 2009 08:13 PM

In reply to this comment (#2533959)
"You will not see the TWIST ending coming!"..."D'oh!"

(Reply to this)
alsanali
alsanali writes:
on Aug 06 2009 09:01 PM

Maybe the twist is that there's no actual twist?

(Reply to this)
ledawg1138
ledawg1138 writes:
on Aug 06 2009 09:04 PM

In reply to this comment (#2533972)
Genius!

(Reply to this)
Boxman
Boxman writes:
on Aug 06 2009 10:49 PM

Darn! I still messed up on my second post. I have no idea why I put the letter p after Julia whoops.

(Reply to this)
Graham T.
Graham T. writes:
on Aug 07 2009 01:01 AM

I think that GI Joe will do well, but it really depends on fan reaction to give it some leg. It cost $170M to make, so a $50M opening isn't exceptional. Julie and Julia doesn't look like a big box office taker, so I'm not sure if it will make $18M. Funny People could go below Harry Potter this weekend- my friends said it was **** poor! G Force is doing a good too. A Perfect Getaway should be higher, but it probably won't do well. I'm expecting 500 Days of Summer to be top 10 this weekend; it's had a massive theater jump, and tracking has it at number 8 this weekend, just above The Hangover.

(Reply to this)
Sputnik99
Sputnik99 writes:
on Aug 07 2009 03:05 PM

G.I. Joe was...decent. It was not crap, but it won't win any awards, either. It left me feeling satisfied, like I got a good adrenaline rush, but it also left me a little irked at the parts of the plot that just didn't work for me.

So don't listen to the haters who demand a masterpiece. G.I. Joe is no masterpiece, but if you loosen up, like you really should do whenever you see a movie, you'll have a good time. It's worth the money.

Yo Joe!


(Reply to this)
Will J.
Will J. writes:
on Aug 07 2009 07:13 PM

Seriously guys? GI Joe is not doing 48 mil in my opinion. My guess is that it will do 27 to 33 mil. The only audience it has is the hardcore fans of the toys. The teen market is split in half, some think it looks good, but more think it looks flat out stupid and has crappy effects in the commercials. Here's to hoping that Joe doesn't become a trilogy.

(Reply to this)
THE MANWHORE
THE MANWHORE writes:
on Aug 09 2009 06:00 AM

Well WILL J., hopefully your opinion is dead wrong! As I myself & alot of others I know who have seen it, actually WANT a trilogy & really had alot of fun watching this movie.

(Reply to this)
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