Box Office Guru Preview: "Grindhouse" Prepares for Easter Carnage
Easter weekend sees four new wide releases hopping into the marketplace aiming to give the spring box office a boost.
Action audiences get The Weinstein Company's two-for-the-price-of-one special "Grindhouse" while horror fans go for a scare with the religious-themed fright flick "The Reaping" starring Hilary Swank which opens on Thursday. Wednesday saw two competing family films bow - the Ice Cube sequel "Are We Done Yet?" and the pooch pic "Firehouse Dog." With Good Friday being a holiday for many, three-day numbers should reach healthy levels.
Moviegoers with three hours to kill and a love of death and destruction will line up for "Grindhouse," a double feature with separate films directed by indie heroes Quentin Tarantino and Robert Rodriguez. The R-rated pic includes the former's road actioner "Death Proof" starring Kurt Russell, Rosario Dawson and Rose McGowan while the latter's zombie flick "Planet Terror" stars McGowan and Freddy Rodriguez. Clearly the primary business will come from the young male fan base that Tarantino and Rodriguez hold dearly. Since there is so much overlap here, the grosses may not grow beyond what they've seen with previous hits.
"Grindhouse" has had some flashy marketing which is successfully generating interest. Plus there is starpower behind the cameras. Add in the two-for-one novelty item and the press tour that the cast and directors are on and it's clear to see that a strong opening weekend will result. Debuts for similar ultraviolent R-rated films from the helmers include $22.1M for 2003's "Kill Bill Vol. 1," $25.1M for the folowing year's "Kill Bill Vol. 2," and $29.1M for 2005's "Sin City." But cutting into "Grindhouse"'s potential will be its length which will force each screen to offer one less showtime per day compared to conventional two-hour films. Reviews have been very positive so the pic may reach a little beyond its core crowd of fan boys. Entering 2,624 theaters on Friday, "Grindhouse" could deliver an opening weekend gross of around $25M.
"Grindhouse"
Following in the footsteps of Jim Carrey and Sandra Bullock from earlier this year, Hilary Swank gives it a go in the world of horror with the new religious-themed chiller "The Reaping." The R-rated film finds the two-time Oscar winner playing a scientist called in to investigate mysterious occurances in a small Louisiana town where locals believe Biblical devastation is on its way. Horror flicks with religious storylines usually connect with audiences and with "The Reaping" timed for an Easter weekend launch, a sizable four-day start is likely. The thriller should skew a bit more female given the protagonist while age-wise, the appeal seems broader than just older teens and young adults.
With the Thursday debut, Warner Bros. is looking to take advantage of the Good Friday holiday which will make Thursday night at the multiplexes seem like a Friday night. A Wednesday bow, which is common for this particular weekend, would have been more risky as bad word-of-mouth from opening day ticket buyers who return to work or school on Thursday would dampen weekend sales. Reviews have not been too pleasant, but the studio deserves credit for actually holding press screenings which nowadays is rare for a horror film. With "Premonition" and "The Hills Have Eyes 2" both fading away into the low single-digit millions this weekend, "The Reaping" is ready to cater to those in the market for a good scare. Warner Bros. attacks 2,501 theaters on Thursday and increases the run to 2,603 on Friday and could register an opening weekend of roughly $14M and $17M over four days.
Hilary Swank in "The Reaping."
Rapper-turned-actor Ice Cube conquered the kiddie movie box office two years ago with the surprise hit "Are We There Yet?" which grossed $82.3M becoming the star's biggest career hit. For the sequel "Are We Done Yet?," Sony has replaced the road comedy element with a story about a family facing all kinds of obstacles fixing up their new house. There debuted to a solid $18.6M in January 2005 against almost no competition for family audiences. "Done" feels like the same dish served up again and has not really excited its target audience. Plus there is much more competition for it to deal with in the marketplace, notably Disney's "Meet the Robinsons" which offers fresh new entertainment. Cube probably won't see the same success the second time around but at least the grosses won't tumble 82% the way they did when he took control of the "XXX" sequel. Now playing in 2,877 theaters, "Are We Done Yet?" could collect about $13M over three days and $16M over five days.
Ice Cube in "Are We Done Yet?"
Families not in the mood for some fun with Ice Cube get to try out the boy-and-his-dog drama "Firehouse Dog" from Fox. The PG-rated pic about a celebrity hound that gets lost and later rescued by a firefighting team lacks the starpower and marketing muscle needed to deliver a strong opening. Between "Are We Done Yet?," "Meet the Robinsons," and even "TMNT," kids have enough choices this Easter weekend and will probably wait for "Firehouse Dog" on DVD. Bowing in 2,566 sites, the family film could open with about $7M over three days and $9M over five days.
"Firehouse Dog"
Among holdovers, the Will Ferrell comedy "Blades of Glory" looks to lose its spot at the top of the box office, but should still deliver a solid sophomore spin. The comedian's summer hits "Talladega Nights" and "Anchorman" both dropped by more than 50% in their second weekends. "Blades" has the Good Friday holiday to help soften the blow a bit. A 45% decline would give Paramount about $18M for the frame and a solid $61M after ten days.
Disney's "Meet the Robinsons" also got off to a strong start last weekend, but will face stiff competition for families from both "Are We Done Yet?" and "Firehouse Dog." The 3D toon could slide 35% to around $16M for a ten-day cume of nearly $50M. The ultraviolent war film "300" may fall by 45% to $6M and lift its impressive haul to $190M. The worldwide tally should blast past $350M this weekend.
LAST YEAR: Still ranking number one with ease was the animated smash "Ice Age: The Meltdown" with $33.8M despite losing half of its opening weekend sales. Debuting in second was the Rob Schneider sports comedy "The Benchwarmers" with $19.7M on its way to $57.7M for Sony. New Line's dance pic "Take the Lead" opened in third with $12.1M before finishing off with $34.7M. The Denzel Washington-Jodie Foster actioner "Inside Man" followed with $9.1M in its third heist. Rounding out the top five was another action thriller "Lucky Number Slevin" with a $7M bow on its way to $22.5M for The Weinstein Co. The Fox Searchlight comedy "Phat Girlz" flopped in ninth with just $3.1M before getting yanked with only $7.1M.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com
Action audiences get The Weinstein Company's two-for-the-price-of-one special "Grindhouse" while horror fans go for a scare with the religious-themed fright flick "The Reaping" starring Hilary Swank which opens on Thursday. Wednesday saw two competing family films bow - the Ice Cube sequel "Are We Done Yet?" and the pooch pic "Firehouse Dog." With Good Friday being a holiday for many, three-day numbers should reach healthy levels.
Moviegoers with three hours to kill and a love of death and destruction will line up for "Grindhouse," a double feature with separate films directed by indie heroes Quentin Tarantino and Robert Rodriguez. The R-rated pic includes the former's road actioner "Death Proof" starring Kurt Russell, Rosario Dawson and Rose McGowan while the latter's zombie flick "Planet Terror" stars McGowan and Freddy Rodriguez. Clearly the primary business will come from the young male fan base that Tarantino and Rodriguez hold dearly. Since there is so much overlap here, the grosses may not grow beyond what they've seen with previous hits.
"Grindhouse" has had some flashy marketing which is successfully generating interest. Plus there is starpower behind the cameras. Add in the two-for-one novelty item and the press tour that the cast and directors are on and it's clear to see that a strong opening weekend will result. Debuts for similar ultraviolent R-rated films from the helmers include $22.1M for 2003's "Kill Bill Vol. 1," $25.1M for the folowing year's "Kill Bill Vol. 2," and $29.1M for 2005's "Sin City." But cutting into "Grindhouse"'s potential will be its length which will force each screen to offer one less showtime per day compared to conventional two-hour films. Reviews have been very positive so the pic may reach a little beyond its core crowd of fan boys. Entering 2,624 theaters on Friday, "Grindhouse" could deliver an opening weekend gross of around $25M.
"Grindhouse"
Following in the footsteps of Jim Carrey and Sandra Bullock from earlier this year, Hilary Swank gives it a go in the world of horror with the new religious-themed chiller "The Reaping." The R-rated film finds the two-time Oscar winner playing a scientist called in to investigate mysterious occurances in a small Louisiana town where locals believe Biblical devastation is on its way. Horror flicks with religious storylines usually connect with audiences and with "The Reaping" timed for an Easter weekend launch, a sizable four-day start is likely. The thriller should skew a bit more female given the protagonist while age-wise, the appeal seems broader than just older teens and young adults.
With the Thursday debut, Warner Bros. is looking to take advantage of the Good Friday holiday which will make Thursday night at the multiplexes seem like a Friday night. A Wednesday bow, which is common for this particular weekend, would have been more risky as bad word-of-mouth from opening day ticket buyers who return to work or school on Thursday would dampen weekend sales. Reviews have not been too pleasant, but the studio deserves credit for actually holding press screenings which nowadays is rare for a horror film. With "Premonition" and "The Hills Have Eyes 2" both fading away into the low single-digit millions this weekend, "The Reaping" is ready to cater to those in the market for a good scare. Warner Bros. attacks 2,501 theaters on Thursday and increases the run to 2,603 on Friday and could register an opening weekend of roughly $14M and $17M over four days.
Hilary Swank in "The Reaping."
Rapper-turned-actor Ice Cube conquered the kiddie movie box office two years ago with the surprise hit "Are We There Yet?" which grossed $82.3M becoming the star's biggest career hit. For the sequel "Are We Done Yet?," Sony has replaced the road comedy element with a story about a family facing all kinds of obstacles fixing up their new house. There debuted to a solid $18.6M in January 2005 against almost no competition for family audiences. "Done" feels like the same dish served up again and has not really excited its target audience. Plus there is much more competition for it to deal with in the marketplace, notably Disney's "Meet the Robinsons" which offers fresh new entertainment. Cube probably won't see the same success the second time around but at least the grosses won't tumble 82% the way they did when he took control of the "XXX" sequel. Now playing in 2,877 theaters, "Are We Done Yet?" could collect about $13M over three days and $16M over five days.
Ice Cube in "Are We Done Yet?"
Families not in the mood for some fun with Ice Cube get to try out the boy-and-his-dog drama "Firehouse Dog" from Fox. The PG-rated pic about a celebrity hound that gets lost and later rescued by a firefighting team lacks the starpower and marketing muscle needed to deliver a strong opening. Between "Are We Done Yet?," "Meet the Robinsons," and even "TMNT," kids have enough choices this Easter weekend and will probably wait for "Firehouse Dog" on DVD. Bowing in 2,566 sites, the family film could open with about $7M over three days and $9M over five days.
"Firehouse Dog"
Among holdovers, the Will Ferrell comedy "Blades of Glory" looks to lose its spot at the top of the box office, but should still deliver a solid sophomore spin. The comedian's summer hits "Talladega Nights" and "Anchorman" both dropped by more than 50% in their second weekends. "Blades" has the Good Friday holiday to help soften the blow a bit. A 45% decline would give Paramount about $18M for the frame and a solid $61M after ten days.
Disney's "Meet the Robinsons" also got off to a strong start last weekend, but will face stiff competition for families from both "Are We Done Yet?" and "Firehouse Dog." The 3D toon could slide 35% to around $16M for a ten-day cume of nearly $50M. The ultraviolent war film "300" may fall by 45% to $6M and lift its impressive haul to $190M. The worldwide tally should blast past $350M this weekend.
LAST YEAR: Still ranking number one with ease was the animated smash "Ice Age: The Meltdown" with $33.8M despite losing half of its opening weekend sales. Debuting in second was the Rob Schneider sports comedy "The Benchwarmers" with $19.7M on its way to $57.7M for Sony. New Line's dance pic "Take the Lead" opened in third with $12.1M before finishing off with $34.7M. The Denzel Washington-Jodie Foster actioner "Inside Man" followed with $9.1M in its third heist. Rounding out the top five was another action thriller "Lucky Number Slevin" with a $7M bow on its way to $22.5M for The Weinstein Co. The Fox Searchlight comedy "Phat Girlz" flopped in ninth with just $3.1M before getting yanked with only $7.1M.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com
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(1-17 of 17 posts) | Reply
 on Apr 05 2007 05:34 PM [b]GRIDNHOUSE?![/b] Do they honestly think Grindhouse will make #1?! Are We Done Yet or the Reaping will DEFINATELY take #1! Their predictions are always off, anyway. Why does Mr. Duong trust these people? What is their reputation? Mr. Duong? Paging Senh... (Reply to this) |
 on Apr 05 2007 06:03 PM um are you kidding? grindhouse will crush all of those movies i think it could even break 30 (Reply to this) |
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on Apr 05 2007 06:45 PM In reply to this comment (#860344) Ummm... Box Office Guru's predictions are usually pretty accurate. I was checking there for estimates and results before I even knew rottentomatoes existed and probably before most people cared to know ASAP which movie was predicted to be/was #1. They don't always hit it right on the money (though quite often they are damn close) and there are always upsets and shockers (when they are way off, so is most every other analyst), but there is a lot that goes into predicting the weekend box office beyond buzz or which movie looks like a sure thing. Those are indicators, but how a film is "tracking" with audiences is the biggest teller. A movie like "Grindhouse" could go either way. Lots of curiosity and the hype + the two cult directors will guarantee big box office.... but, will anyone but their cult and movie buffs show up? The R rating and - especially, 3 hr. run time will pretty much keep its grosses in check. I could see family's pushing "Are We There Yet?" to an upset victory, but between the R-rated "Grindhouse" and "The Reaping" which both will play to similar audiences, I gotta believe "Grindhouse" is the buzz film to beat. Plus, can Hilary Swank open a movie? Her "Million Dollar Baby" is one of my top 10 favorite movies, but that is mainly because of Clint, both the actor and director. Anyway, I know which one I'm seeing. Here's a hint: It's not "The Reaping" or "Are We There Yet?" (Reply to this) |
 on Apr 05 2007 08:22 PM I know Grindhouse is over 3 hours which will turn alot of people away but there are too many Q.T and R.R. fans in the world to keep them from seeing it aways. I think 25 million is a total underestimate. Look what 300 pulled in its first week and I'm sure that most of the people who would have an interest to see 300 are eagerly await Grindhouse! Except maybe the chicks but so what it all the guys in Grindhouse don't have exposed six-packs to daze at through the bloodshed, their loss more blood for us men, manley men...who roam around the fields looking for fights! (Reply to this) |
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on Apr 05 2007 08:34 PM In reply to this comment (#860347) Ha, Ha! Yes! But you can look at what these guys' movies generally gross and assume this one will fall into that ball park. I hope you are right though. For the sake of us manly men roaming the forests looking for fights, that is. (Reply to this) |
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on Apr 05 2007 09:58 PM yup Grindhouse all the way with at least 25-40 million. yes its gory and bloody, but hey lots of people like that these days espically from these two directors so i know im watching it for sure and over 25 mil worth of others will too (Reply to this) |
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on Apr 06 2007 05:42 AM In reply to this comment (#860350) Prediction: Grindhouse, between zero and 100 million dollars!!! :) (Reply to this) |
 on Apr 06 2007 12:33 PM The only one worth seeing this weekend is Grindhouse in my opinion, but almost everyone I talk to says it looks stupid to them with the machine gun leg and all. The Reaping is actually the one everyone I know plans on going to and they are all excited and think it will be great. (Reply to this) |
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on Apr 06 2007 12:34 PM In reply to this comment (#860351) wow way to go out on a limb there (Reply to this) |
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on Apr 06 2007 03:43 PM how is the reaping more exciting than grindhouse??? it is about the 10 plagues. that is so boring and overdone. there are so many movies about an agnostic scientist coming to a religious town and finding out the "truth" about spooky things happening there. at least the machine gun leg thing is somewhat original. grindhouse you get two movies for the price of one. that is a deal compared to a crappy hilary swank movie with cheap scares. grindhouse will dominate like 300. (Reply to this) |
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on Apr 06 2007 07:18 PM In reply to this comment (#860348) Robin Hood Men in Tights: You got to love that one and for some reason that song came to my head at that moment. But I went to the matinee today and I will admit that there were a hell of alot less people there than I thought there would be. Maybe you all were right! It did kickass though and the trailers were great! Although I was anticipating a real trailer for Halloween and Hostel II but no such luck, I got stuck with Next, Fracture, and shit who knows I can't remember. (Reply to this) |
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on Apr 07 2007 01:29 AM In reply to this comment (#860353) That was the joke... did you see the comment I was replying too??? (Reply to this) |
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on Apr 07 2007 01:32 AM In reply to this comment (#860355) Movie was great as expected. Theatre was packed. Enthusiastic crowd. No Haloween or Hosrel II trailer either (but, fuck Hostel II anyway), but Die Hard, Vacancy, and Fracture. Fake trailers were better than all of those, but can we really resisit Die Hard 4 at this point?! Claps were heard. (Reply to this) |
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on Apr 07 2007 01:51 AM Grindhouse will never be 300. I mean 300 was marketed like mad, with some of the most magnetic trailers in recent years. You just could not have seen the trailer and not gone to watch the movie. But Grindhouse is a genre flick. And while both the movies have that kickass coolness radiating from them, 300 was much much cooler. Thats not to say that its the better movie. Death Proof for my money looks brilliant. QT is an intelligent director afterall. And Planet Terror looks like some nice cheap zombie fun. But people wont flock to watch Grindhouse like they did for 300. (Reply to this) |
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on Apr 07 2007 09:28 AM They are grossly underestimating Are We Done Yet (Reply to this) |
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on Apr 07 2007 09:33 AM [b]Are we don yet is beating all 3 movies[/b] These are the ht This is how much it made on friday. 1. BLADES OF GLORY PARAMOUNT 3,372 8,887,000 2,636 -26% 54,276,000 2. MEET THE ROBINSON BVI 3,413 6,892,000 2,019 -8% 42,037,000 3. ARE WE DONE YET? SONY 2,877 5,373,000 1,868 n/a 9,663,000 4. GRINDHOUSE WEINSTEIN CO. 2,624 5,030,000 1,917 n/a 5,030,000 5. REAPING, THE WARNER BROS. 2,603 3,877,000 1,489 n/a 5,876,000 6. 300 WARNER BROS. 3,004 2,891,000 962 -14% 187,948,000 7. WILD HOGS BVI 3,200 2,363,000 738 -4% 140,984,900 8. SHOOTER PARAMOUNT 2,806 2,009,000 716 -17% 33,359,000 9. TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES (TMNT) WARNER BROS. 3,120 1,833,000 588 -27% 43,608,000 10. FIREHOUSE DOG 20TH CENTURY FOX 2,566 1,553,000 605 n/a 2,813,000 (Reply to this) |
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on Sep 28 2007 10:32 AM Hey guys, look what I found. This is a wicked auction where you can get signed guitars and other cool signed items from the Virgin Festivals. Just go to www.ebay.com/virginunite. All of the proceeds go to charity too. Check it out if you want to win cool stuff for some awesome h (Reply to this) |
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