ROTTEN TOMATOES: Box Office Guru Wrapup: Pottermania Strikes with $330M Global Bow

Box Office Guru Wrapup: Pottermania Strikes with $330M Global Bow

by Gitesh Pandya | July 16, 2007

Hogwarts fans flexed their muscles at the North American box office showing up in droves once again for the extended opening weekend of "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" which seized control of the multiplexes with its top spot debut. Most holdovers fared well too as no film in the top ten suffered a decline of more than 50%.

Flying in and winning the box office crown, the fifth "Harry Potter" film grossed an estimated $77.4M over the Friday-to-Sunday weekend period and an eye-popping $140M since its Wednesday launch. That gave Warner Bros. the second best Wednesday-to-Sunday opening in history trailing only the $152.4M of "Spider-Man 2" which debuted just ahead of the Independence Day holiday in 2004.

Comparing "Phoenix" to previous "Potter" films or even to this summer's biggest opening weekends would be pointless since those blockbusters all debuted on a Friday. The latest wizard film did set a new Wednesday opening day record with $44.2M which ranked as the fifth best opening day overall. The budget was reportedly in the neighborhood of $200M.

Overseas, Warner Bros made a deep impact as well collecting a staggering $190.3M over five days from 44 territories from over 12,000 prints. In North America, the PG-13 film launched in 4,285 theaters with over 9,000 total prints. That gave "Phoenix" a jaw-dropping global opening of $330M in just five days. The film also set Imax records around the world.

Directed by David Yates, "The Order of the Phoenix" took the longest book in the wildly popular series and transformed it into the shortest of the five films thus far. Reviews were mixed but overall most were positive. Extra excitement was generated by the hype surrounding the debut of the seventh and final book which hits stores by no coincidence just a week after the film's opening weekend.

"Phoenix" hopes to eventually generate the $882M that the past Potter films have averaged in worldwide box office. The stunning amount is equal to the current average of the three "Pirates of the Caribbean" pics and is higher than the $830M for each of the three "Spider-Man" films and the $808M average gross for the recent "Star Wars" trilogy. However, "Potter" still has a long way to go in order to come close to boosting its global box office average to the astounding $970M for "The Lord of the Rings" trio.

"Phoenix" averaged a powerful $18,065 over three days from its ultrawide saturation release which included 91 Imax locations. The blockbuster averaged an additional $14,974 from 4,181 playdates over its $62.6M Wednesday-Thursday midweek bow. Though diluted down by the midweek launch, the new wizard film still outdistanced its nearest competitor by more than a two-to-one ratio over the weekend period.

Bumped to second place in its second weekend was the robot megahit "Transformers" with an estimated $36M for Paramount and DreamWorks. The Michael Bay-directed actioner dropped only 49% which was encouraging for a summer tentpole given the arrival of "Potter." The cume shot to an astounding $223M in only 13.5 days and became the director's all-time top grosser. Budgeted at $150M, the Autobots could go on to gross about $300M domestically and over $700M worldwide making it one of the summer's top-performing hits.

Disney and Pixar followed with their computer-animated concoction "Ratatouille" which slipped 38% to an estimated $18M in its third outing. The total reached $143M and the $200M mark still seems within reach. Bruce Willis captured an estimated $10.9M with his action sequel "Live Free or Die Hard" which fell 39% and upped its cume to $102.9M. A domestic final of roughly $130M seems likely.

The Robin Williams comedy "License to Wed" enjoyed a remarkably good hold in its second weekend grossing an estimated $7.4M. Off only 29%, the Warner Bros. title has taken in $30.5M in 13 days and could make its way to $50-55M.

MGM's long-lasting horror flick "1408" dipped only 29% in its fourth frame to an estimated $5M raising the cume to a solid $62.2M. The John Cusack starrer now looks on track to surpass "Disturbia" to become the top-grossing fright flick of 2007. Struggling to make its way into the century club, Steve Carell's "Evan Almighty" grossed an estimated $5M as well, down 43%, putting its total at $87.9M.

Universal stablemate "Knocked Up" followed with an estimated $3.7M, down only 30%, for a sum of $138.2M. The Michael Moore documentary "Sicko" dropped 26% to an estimated $2.7M giving Lionsgate $15.9M to date. Rounding out the top ten was "Ocean's Thirteen" with an estimated $1.9M, down 46%, putting the Warner Bros. sequel at $112.4M.

Don Cheadle's new indie film "Talk To Me" opened to solid results in limited release grossing an estimated $391,000 from only 33 theaters for a potent $11,848 average. The Focus release about controversial radio host Petey Greene earned strong reviews and played to both arthouse and African American audiences. Talk will expand further on July 27.

After Dark Films couldn't find paying customers for its new horror title "Captivity" which bowed to just $1.6M, according to estimates. The R-rated gorefest starring Elisha Cuthbert averaged a puny $1,476 from 1,050 venues and should arrive on DVD within minutes.

Falling from the top ten over the weekend was the super hero sequel "Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer" which collected an estimated $1.6M tumbling 63% in its fifth mission. With $127.1M in the bank, the Fox release seems headed for a final domestic total of roughly $130M which would be 16% lower than the $154.7M of its 2005 predecessor. "Silver Surfer" has company in that department since most high profile summer films this year are running behind the paces of their last corresponding films. Percentages that this season's sequels are trailing their predecessors by include 6% for "Ocean's Thirteen," 10% for "Spider-Man 3," 25% for "Shrek the Third," 25% for "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," and 55% for "Evan Almighty." Even Pixar's "Ratatouille" is currently 9% behind the pace of last summer's "Cars."

A handful of limited releases expanded into more markets and were met with varying results. MGM's war drama "Rescue Dawn" widened from six to 38 sites and grossed an estimated $357,000 for a strong $9,395 average. Cume is $586,000. Fox Searchlight's "Joshua" expanded from six to 151 locations and took in an estimated $210,000 for a mild $1,391 average. Total stands at $285,000. Warner Independent grossed an estimated $91,000 for its comedy "Introducing the Dwights" after going from four to 35 playdates. With an average of only $2,600, the total reached $145,000.

The top ten films grossed an estimated $167.9M which was up 14% from last year when "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" remained at number one with $62.3M; and up 10% from 2005 when "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory" debuted on top with $56.2 million.

Author: Gitesh Pandaya, www.boxofficeguru.com

Related Items

Movie:	Live Free or Die
	Joshua
	Sicko
	License To Wed
	Knocked Up
	Captivity
	1408
	Evan Almighty
	Transformers
	Ratatouille
	Ocean's Thirteen
	The Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
	Introducing The Dwights

(1-20 of 42 posts) | Reply

pirate of skulls writes:
on Jul 15 2007 09:31 PM

damn it...someone give me $9.50 so i can go see harry potter.

(Reply to this)

Mr. Kong writes:
on Jul 15 2007 09:49 PM

I will honestly laugh if Captivity is on Wal-Mart shelves by next month...

(Reply to this)

kendrith1975 writes:
on Jul 15 2007 09:59 PM

What a great weekend for Hollywood! Despite the arrival of HARRY POTTER doing the brisk business it has, all holdovers in the top ten drop less than 50%, including TRANSFORMERS, which I suspect last week could have dropped by as much as 60%, but got an impressive hold.

I think this is the results that most people like to see, as there are a breadth of products out there to satisfy everybody, well, almost, except adult oriented dramas, which Hollywood has decided to stay clear of during the summer.

DIE HARD 4 continue to perform well, and I am still disappointed that most analyst did not point out how well it is doing compare to its predecessors, including critical acclaim and actual box office performance. By next week, DIE HARD 4.0 will surpass DIE HARD 2 as the top performer of the franchise. This is very impressive given that Bruce Willis' stock has declined so much since his post SIXTH SENSE bump. Maybe this is one of his many comebacks again!

RATATOUILLE, as great as it is doing right now, is most likely going to trail CARS. The novelty of CG animations has declined so much, but at least that shows PIXAR no longer can dominate as the wealth has been spread out too wide.

OCEAN's THIRTEEN has been performing very well, despite not going to match its predecessor, percentage wise, as boxofficeguru puts it, it is not going to trail by too much. As much as I like the movie, it is a shame that it failed to register one single weekend with a dropoff of less than 40%, although it is already much better than when boxofficeguru first expect to be 50% dropoffs.

To put how hot this weekend is in perspective, even a terrible movie like LICENSE TO WED (at least the 9% rotten rating suggest) can manage to drop just 26%. This shows that some audiences still love to see Robin Williams in anything. His output has gotten so low in recent years (especially since his GOOD WILL HUNTING's oscar win) I think he seriously need to negotiate better scripts so his stock will rise again. At least it is going to do better than MAN OF THE YEAR.

At this current pace, there is no reason why Hollywood is not going to enjoy a sensational 2007 summer results. However, so far there are no potential indie-breakouts. WAITRESS is stalling at under 20 million, a good but certainly a far cry from LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE. SICKO is actually performing well, dipping less than 30%, despite many people wanting to trash it for ideological reasons, and now stands a very good chance of surpassing BOWLING FOR COLUMBINE as the 3rd biggest documentary.

(Reply to this)

bigbrother writes:
on Jul 15 2007 10:57 PM

I think people are finally just happy to see some of the summer movies deliver now after the disappointment of the big 3 that opened the summer season.

(Reply to this)

aknddon3 writes:
on Jul 16 2007 02:22 AM

In reply to this comment (#931519)
Except that most is not all people were not disappointed by the big three.

(Reply to this)

bigbrother writes:
on Jul 16 2007 04:28 AM

In reply to this comment (#931702)
I think you were not disappointed in the big 3. Obviously some people were disappointed in them. Regardless of what you think of my opinion I am still a person, thus proving that at least someone was disappointed and at least where Pirates and Spiderman are concerned the vast majority of people I've met were in the "They were good, but not as good as previous" or "That was horribly disappointing" columns. IMO the second half of the Summer has been by far the stronger for quality of movies. I enjoyed Potter, Die Hard and Oceans 13 much more than Spidey, Pirates and Shrek 3's. I also anticipate from what I heard that I'll enjoy Transformers when it comes out this week. Fingers crossed.

(Reply to this)

Gimy writes:
on Jul 16 2007 05:33 AM

"Hogwart fans flexed their muscles"??? dude that is the biggest bs i've ever read. c'mon, potter nerds...with...muscles? jesus...

captivity wasn't even that wide of a release. it was more tyra banks wide...than rosie odonnell wide so why expect big #'s? i don't get why people gripe that movies dont make much when in fact, NOBODY CAN SEE THEM! plus...other than the early buzz about their posters awhile back...i haven't seen or heard anything about it.

(Reply to this)

synergyred writes:
on Jul 16 2007 06:18 AM

Glad to see Harry doing good, Ratatouille staying strong, and 1408 getting the love it deserves. I'm also quite happy to see that Captivity isn't doing well at all. Honestly, I don't know a single person (although I bet there's at least one RT poster who will disagree with me here) who actually wanted to see it. Looks like their underhanded "poster mistake" meant to drum up controversy for ticket sales, didn't work. Maybe I'm being silly, but I've never been a big fan of such schemes.

I'm curious to see if Harry Potter 5 will also trail behind it's predecessors. I sure hope not, as the film was a lot of fun!

(Reply to this)

~*Admiral Snowstorm*~ writes:
on Jul 16 2007 06:22 AM

So no movie dropped by more than 50%, but Transformers dropped by 49%...Wow. Way to play that statement for all its worth.

I have not seen a single commercial for Captivity, and while I know that it exists, the average viewer relies on commercials to persuade or dissuade them. Commercials and promotion were the reasons Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man's Chest made all the money it did. Sure it was an awful movie, but it was well-advertised.

Also, around here, most people disliked Pirates 3 and Spider-Man 3 (although some people did like them. But a lot of people didn't. Even my loyal obsessive diehard Pirates of the Caribbean fan hated the third film, amazingly.). And I honestly have not met a single person who thought Shrek the Third was good. Personally, I liked Spider-Man 3, but I wasn't expecting much from the other two and didn't get much in return.

(Reply to this)

Crenshaw writes:
on Jul 16 2007 07:07 AM

I'm just glad to see that Captivity did so poorly. Maybe this "genre" will go away soon.

(Reply to this)

IMAmoose24 writes:
on Jul 16 2007 07:10 AM

In reply to this comment (#931841)
More like Nerd Power.

(Reply to this)

kendrith1975 writes:
on Jul 16 2007 08:11 AM

In reply to this comment (#931841)
With such an explosive start, HARRY POTTER 5 is certainly going to outgross HARRY POTTER 3. and that is already good enough news. When you see all the May 3quels grossing less than its predecessors, a lot of it was due to bad word of mouth and critical reception. HP5 is the worst reviewed film of the franchise, but on its own its critical approval rating is still very high compare to the May 3quels.

(Reply to this)

kendrith1975 writes:
on Jul 16 2007 08:19 AM

In reply to this comment (#931845)
From a fan's perspective, the biggest fault that SPIDERMAN 3 has is to have Harry able to forgive and forget just like that. It's very unconvincing, not to mention it played out so cheesily, but hey, this is just a comic book, right? The film was still very entertaining, and there are many powerful moments, not to mention dark humour.

Otherwise, I am going to keep saying this: SPIDERMAN 3 is still the best reviewed picture of the 3quels, and has the best retention levels compare to its predecessor, as boxofficeguru already put it.

(Reply to this)

dracus writes:
on Jul 16 2007 08:29 AM

In reply to this comment (#931702)
The big three were good, but a disappointment considering what was expected of them especially when it comes to Pirates and Spiderman. As for Transformers, it was better than what I expected from Michael E-Bay, but considering Spielberg was attached to it, it should have been much better.

So far, Sicko seems to be only one that%u2019s delivering on its expectations.

(Reply to this)

dracus writes:
on Jul 16 2007 08:31 AM

In reply to this comment (#931702)
The big three were good, but a disappointment considering what was expected of them especially when it comes to Pirates and Spiderman. As for Transformers, it was better than what I expected from Michael E-Bay, but considering Spielberg was attached to it, it should have been much better.

So far, Sicko seems to be only one that%u2019s delivering on its expectations.

(Reply to this)

unbreakable_samurai writes:
on Jul 16 2007 09:18 AM

Good start for Potter, and it's nice to see Die Hard, and Knocked Up still doing well. I'm happy that Talk to Me got off to a good start and Rescue Dawn expanded well. That's to bad that Joshua didn't do better though.

(Reply to this)

Mr. Kong writes:
on Jul 16 2007 09:18 AM

In reply to this comment (#931702)
Unfortunatley, yes, people were dissapointed by the big 3 (the only one that dissapointnted me was Shrek the Third, but I haven't seen Pirates yet :( )

(Reply to this)

bigbrother writes:
on Jul 16 2007 09:39 AM

Off topic here, but not loving the new RT format. Old way was much better. Fortunately I think I've got it figured out so you won't have to read this 13 times.

(Reply to this)

Mr. Kong writes:
on Jul 16 2007 09:43 AM

In reply to this comment (#932430)
Agreed. I don't mind the way the actual news is set up, that I can live with, but the new comments and reply system is putrid.

(Reply to this)

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