Universal plays the popular counter-programming card with its lavish musical Mamma Mia! which brings together top stars such as Meryl Streep, Pierce Brosnan, Colin Firth, and Christine Baranski. The PG-13 film about a young bride who invites her three potential fathers to her wedding is a big-screen adaptation of the wildly popular stage show that has played to over 30 million people in packed houses worldwide. Budgeted at $65M, Mamma will skew heavily female but has the chance to pull in young and old alike. A year ago this weekend, New Line bowed its musical Hairspray to a better-than-expected $27.5M and sang its way to a robust $118.9M. Mamma Mia! is based on a more popular and more relevant property, however its cast lacks the teen starpower that Hairspray had with Zac Efron and Amanda Bynes who were crucial in pulling in the high school crowd. Plus the latter had a family-friendly PG rating.

Folks not in the mood for dark violence will certainly find cheery upbeat fun in Mamma Mia! which should post long-term numbers more like Dreamgirls and Hairspray than like Rent or The Producers. The music from ABBA is also a solid commercial asset. Fun films with a female skew have been winning over audiences all year from Juno, 27 Dresses, and Hannah Montana at the start of the year to Baby Mama, What Happens in Vegas, and Sex and the City in recent months. Mamma will keep the party going for underserved audiences sick and tired of superheroes and all their personal issues. Dancing into 2,976 locations, Mamma Mia! might bow to about $28M this weekend.


If you want something with slightly less testosterone...
Three monkeys are sent across the galaxy in Fox's Space Chimps, a new animated comedy aimed squarely at the youngest of children. The G-rated film features the voices of Andy Samberg, Cheryl Hines, Patrick Warburton, and Jeff Daniels. This entry will have its work cut out for it since overall buzz is low and there is no brand here that can generate excitement. Plus a number of films are already doing well with the target demographic like WALL•E and Journey to the Center of the Earth. Opening in around 2,400 theaters, Space Chimps might debut with only $5M.


For those too young for The Dark Knight.
Last weekend's comic sequel Hellboy II: The Golden Army is in for a steep fall. Though it has been well-received by critics and audiences alike, most of the fan base turned out on the opening frame and the Caped Crusader's arrival will steal away any left who may still want to see the devilish hero. Universal's other action entries this summer Wanted and The Incredible Hulk both fell by 60% on the second weekend. Hellboy II looks to perform in the same way and drop to about $14M for a ten-day tally of $61M which would allow the new installment to surpass the gross of its predecessor.

Will Smith's Hancock should hold up a little better since it's going into its third frame and has been posting solid numbers with ticket buyers taking back the number one spot on Monday and Tuesday this week. Still, The Dark Knight will be a direct competitor so a 50% decline to around $16M may result boosting Sony's cume to $193M. The 3D adventure Journey to the Center of the Earth won't be immune to The Joker's fury. A 45% drop to roughly $11M could occur giving New Line and Warner Bros. $42M over ten days.

WALL•E and Wanted both enter frame number four and may experience drops of 40% and 45%, respectively. Disney and Pixar would collect around $11M for a $183M sum while Universal would see $6.5M and boost its tally to $124M.

LAST YEAR: Adam Sandler scored his latest number one opener with I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry which took in $34.2M for Universal on its way to $120.1M. In its second weekend, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix dropped a spot to second with $32.5M smashing through the $200M barrier in the process. New Line's new musical Hairspray debuted in third with a solid $27.5M and found its way to a robust $118.9M. Transformers claimed the fourth spot with $20.5M in its third weekend and the animated comedy Ratatouille placed fifth with $10.9M in its fourth outing.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com