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Box Office Guru Wrapup: Hulk Scores Incredible Opening at #1
Box office has a Banner weekend.
by Gitesh Pandya | June 15, 2008
Discuss Article | Blog Article | Email To A Friend
Two new releases that were both follow-ups to widely hated summer films from recent years rocked the North American box office and were each embraced by moviegoers who spent a combined $85M on the pair. The comic book actioner The Incredible Hulk smashed its way to number one with a solid debut while M. Night Shyamalan's latest thriller The Happening soared above the industry's pessimistic expectations to land in third with a sturdy opening of its own. The overall marketplace remained sizzling hot thanks to five consecutive weekends of $50M+ openers which have given multiplexes a wide range of popular holdovers for their customers.

Five years after Ang Lee gave it a go, Marvel and Universal tried a second take at the angry green man with The Incredible Hulk and generated an impressive first-place debut with an estimated $54.5M. Leaping into 3,505 theaters, the PG-13 film from director Louis Leterrier averaged a fantastic $15,561 per site. It was still below the level of 2003's The Hulk which bowed to $62.1M ($73M at today's ticket prices), but the new Hulk was not expected to soar that high. With so many fans feeling cheated the first time around, it was known that some would take a wait-and-see approach with this reboot of the franchise.



Budgeted at roughly $150M, The Incredible Hulk stars Edward Norton as Bruce Banner with Liv Tyler, Tim Roth, and William Hurt co-starring. Reviews were mostly good and were much better than those for Lee's film. Initial audience reactions have been encouraging too as the actioner's CinemaScore rating was an A-. Studio research showed that The Incredible Hulk skewed male, as expected, with men making up 60% of the crowd. 52% were 25 and older and an ethnically diverse audience came out as 54% were non-Caucasian. Friday got off to a potent $21.7M start, Saturday fell an unsettling 15% to $18.4M, and Universal is estimating an unusually low 22% Sunday decline to $14.4M.

Marvel listened to the complaints of fans and made the new Hulk more action-packed and kept it under two hours in length. Plus Universal's marketing department took no chances and even used shots of Robert Downey Jr.'s cameo as Tony Stark in the television commercials to tap into Iron Man's current popularity. The not-so-jolly green giant ranks sixth among this summer's biggest opening weekends. Overseas, The Incredible Hulk debuted to an estimated $31M from 38 territories.


Dropping down to second place was the animated comedy Kung Fu Panda with an estimated $34.3M for a moderate 43% decline. After ten days, the Paramount-DreamWorks title has amassed an impressive $118M. So far the Jack Black pic is matching the performance of the Disney/Pixar offering Cars almost dollar for dollar. That film opened on the same early June weekend in 2006 with a nearly identical $60.1M before dropping 44% to $33.7M on the sophomore session for a ten-day cume of $117.1M. Cars went on to gross $244.1M. A similar final tally for Kung Fu Panda may result.

Fox scored a better than expected opening for the M. Night Shyamalan thriller The Happening which landed in third with an estimated $30.5M. Attacking 2,986 locations, the director's first-ever R-rated film averaged a sensational $10,214 per theater. It was the second biggest debut of the year for a R pic after Sex and the City's $56.8M. Negative buzz and horrible reviews did little to scare away audiences from the supernatural eco-thriller and tickets buyers responded to the studio's marketing campaign which highlighted the Friday the 13th release date as well as the rating. Shyamalan's built-in audience of fans also were a main reason for the strong start.


After his last film Lady in the Water bombed in 2006 with a $18M bow and weak $42.3M final, the waters became very unfriendly for the director, especially with film critics. But The Happening fought off the bad buzz and played to a broad audience as studio research showed that 52% of the crowd was under 25 while males and females were equally represented. Overseas, the creepfest grossed an additional $32M offering up some variety to the summer box office which so far has been driven by action and comedy.

Long-term prospects for the $50M-budgeted film look shaky though. The Mark Wahlberg starrer debuted to $13.1M domestically on Friday, fell a disturbing 22% to $10.3M on Saturday, and is estimated by its studio to drop a modest 30% to $7.2M on Sunday. Plus the disaster tale has earned a troubling C- average from over 9,000 users of Yahoo Movies so not too many recommendations will be floating around this week.



Audiences abandoned Adam Sandler's newest comedy You Don't Mess With the Zohan which tumbled 57% to an estimated $16.4M in its second weekend in theaters. It was the worst drop of any film in the top ten. Considering the fact that most of the comedian's films decline by 45-50% in the sophomore session and that no new comedies opened against it this weekend, the soldier-turned-hairdresser pic could be suffering from terrible word-of-mouth. Compared to Sandler's other broad comedies from this decade, Zohan posted the largest second weekend decline and the second smallest sophomore weekend gross trailing just the 2000 disaster Little Nicky. His effort from last summer I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry dropped 44% to $19.1M while 2006's Click fell 50% to $19.9M. At its current pace, Zohan looks to find its way to $100-105M.

Steven Spielberg and company ranked fifth with Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull which fell 41% to an estimated $13.5M. The Paramount title has been holding up nicely and lifted its total to $275.3M after 25 days. Harrison Ford's latest adventure now sits at number 36 on the list of all-time domestic blockbusters just behind the $279.2M of 2004's Meet the Fockers. The De Niro-Stiller comedy's haul would be about $310M at today's ticket prices however. For Spielberg, Crystal Skull is his highest-grossing film since 1993's Jurassic Park.



Dropping 52% in its third weekend was Sex and the City which bagged an estimated $10.2M giving the ladies of HBO a stunning $119.9M from North America alone. Overseas, the New Line/Warner Bros. film took in a sizable $23.3M to push the international cume to $136M. Worldwide, audiences have spent an amazing $256M on Sex with the $300M barrier looking to fall later this month.

For the second straight weekend Iron Man posted the smallest decline in the top ten. The Tony Stark adventure dipped 31% to an estimated $5.1M, despite the arrival of his green Marvel buddy, and raised its tally to an amazing $297.4M. That put the Paramount release at number 27 on the all-time domestic list right behind the first Pirates of the Caribbean which looted $305.4M in 2003. The Pirates total would be roughly $358M at today's prices though. Look for Iron Man to zoom past the $300M mark by the end of the week.



Three May hits rounded out the top ten. Universal's The Strangers dropped 54% to an estimated $4.1M to boost the cume to $45.4M making it the top-grossing horror title of the year so far. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian collected an estimated $3M, off 47%, for a total of $131.7M for Disney. And Fox's comedy What Happens in Vegas laughed up an estimated $1.7M, down 51%, giving the Cameron Diaz-Ashton Kutcher pic a robust $75.8M to date.

The top ten films grossed an estimated $173.4M which was up 26% from last year when Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer opened in the top spot with $58.1M; and up 24% from 2006 when Cars stayed at number one with $33.7M.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com

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Comments (1-20 of 42 posts) | Reply
537770
ihatecarneys writes:
on Jun 15 2008 05:38 PM

Funny how a lot of people made a big deal about SATC out grossing Indy in SATC's first week, but Indy has outgrossed SATC each week since. The cream has risen.

(Reply to this)
jokerboy1991 writes:
on Jun 15 2008 06:12 PM

Glad to see the hulk did good. I liked it, even though it wasnt very character driven more about smashing things. I was really dissapointed with the happening, i bet it will have a huge 60% drop or higher next weekend. I bet the Hulk will have a 40-45 % drop considering most people liked it and im sure lots of people didnt go see because they wanna wait and see if there freinds liked it.
Next weekend
Love Guru- 45-55 Million Total 110 Million
Get Smart - 35-45 Million Total 85-95 Million
The Hulk- 32 Million Total- 150-160 Million
Kung Fu Panda- 20 Million Total- 170-185 Million
The Happening- 10 Million Total- 55 Million


(Reply to this)
jokerboy1991 writes:
on Jun 15 2008 06:13 PM

The Hulk was good, and will do good next weekend 40-45% drop, total 155 Mil. The Happening wasnt good, 55-65 % drop, total 55 Mil..Panda's total will be about 170 Million... Guru #1 next week 45 Mil, total 95 Mil..then Get Smart 35-45 Mil, total 100 Mil.

(Reply to this)
401555
darrinsgoodman writes:
on Jun 15 2008 06:16 PM

i think "the incredible hulk" could have some legs since buzz is good now - i liked it!

(Reply to this)
453115
Altq42 writes:
on Jun 15 2008 06:17 PM

In reply to this comment (#1793371)
ummm well SATC is rated R. so it's not expected to have nearly as long of a lifespan. But 256 million Globally for an R rated comedy aimed at women is AMAZING( also the movie was suprisingly better than Crystal Skull)

(Reply to this)
Alexmovietracker01 writes:
on Jun 15 2008 07:44 PM

That's a good one for Hulk... hope it has some legs, The Happening was really dissapointing, it should fall very hard by the next week, hope Get Smart to conquer the top with a $40 million debut, it looks funny...

(Reply to this)
DaHypr1 writes:
on Jun 15 2008 07:46 PM

In reply to this comment (#1793452)
if you think sex and the city is better than indiana jones you are obviously retarded.

(Reply to this)
414797
Herberbaly writes:
on Jun 15 2008 08:46 PM

Go HULK! Hopefully it has legs and Marvel greenlights a sequel relatively quickly. I hope they can get Norton back, too. Loved the Hulk, and The Happening was simply "Meh."

(Reply to this)
332702
h-town24 writes:
on Jun 15 2008 09:04 PM

"Reviews were mostly good and were much better than those for Lee's film." What? The movie got the same mediocre reviews the last one did!

(Reply to this)
wilkiedriver writes:
on Jun 15 2008 09:14 PM

In reply to this comment (#1793452)
1)I think the R-rating makes it slightly easier for women to drag their men into theaters(instead of the typical rom-com PG-13 crap that comes out all the time). Let's face it, alot of men have been dragging them into Iron Man, Hulk, Indiana Jones, etc. this summer, regardless how much they say they liked it. Compromise sucks but it must be done.

2)The gay community loves SATC and they have alot of disposable income.

3)SATC is immensely popular worldwide. Many contries that didn't carry alot of HBO programs got on the ball and now carry almost everything.


(Reply to this)
456268
keisen writes:
on Jun 15 2008 09:15 PM

In reply to this comment (#1793515)
Usually, I don't go for those kind of remarks but I honestly could not have said it any better myself.
Good show!


(Reply to this)
jokerboy1991 writes:
on Jun 15 2008 09:19 PM

In reply to this comment (#1793672)
Yeah I found that kinda funny how they bot kind of got mediocre reviews, but people seem to really like this one (which I think is good, and better then Lee's version), it has a Yahoo user rating of B , and here users gave it like an 87, I gave it a 70%.

(Reply to this)
212800
Dachshund96 writes:
on Jun 15 2008 09:26 PM

Wilkiedriver all your points are useless. You just got to get in your credit to the gay community don't you. Well the degenerate community is not driving sales for that stupid movie so don't defend it. YOU FAIL!



(Reply to this)
wilkiedriver writes:
on Jun 15 2008 09:27 PM

In reply to this comment (#1793686)
If you are talking to me, thanks. Why "don't go for those kind of remarks". I guess other remarks like mine are homophobic and sexist-laden.

(Reply to this)
wilkiedriver writes:
on Jun 15 2008 09:31 PM

In reply to this comment (#1793702)
Dude, they honestly have a quite a bit of money (like having no kids help). But I'll say this right here, I'm no liberal and live in Texas. There you go...

(Reply to this)
P'city Psycho writes:
on Jun 15 2008 09:32 PM

In reply to this comment (#1793515)
Can't comment on SATC since I haven't seen it, but you did well not to actually say you LIKED the new Indy since you might become the target of the same kind of insult you just dished out. I'll just assume you thought SATC really sucked...and I'll have to assume you did see it.

(Reply to this)
thereign writes:
on Jun 15 2008 09:55 PM

I'm glad The Incredible Hulk did well; it deserved it. Plus, as long as Iron Man's in theaters, the Hulk will probably continue to make money since folks will go see Iron Man first then see the green dude's film in order to check out when and why Stark's in that film. Good marketing move on Marvel's part(now if only they'd just stop dicking around Jon Favreau).

The Happening SUCKED. Fail, bad M. Night movie, fail.


(Reply to this)
412846
Product_of_You writes:
on Jun 15 2008 11:08 PM

I'm surprised that The Hulk and the Happening didn't do better, if where I live is any indication that is. The theatre was packed all weekend, and both movies were constantly selling out, even at ONE FREAKIN' PM!

(Reply to this)
470934
vaodsi writes:
on Jun 16 2008 12:14 AM

so prospects don't look good for the happening since it will drop. but that doesn't matter cause financially it's made a profit... something Hulk has yet to do (which it will in a short matter of days) Lady in the water was made for 75 million and grossed 70 WORLDWIDE!!!!! (ouch.... 5 million loss)
Happening was made for 50 million and made 70 million WORLDWIDE (roughly forty in america and thirty over seas) in it's first weekend. That's a profit. Lady in the water didn't make more than seventy million in it's ENTIRE theatrical release. Audience-speaking...or at least MONEY speaking... things are looking BETTER for Shyamalan than they have lately. Happening just made back it's entire budget plus a half in three days. As i'm sure everybody has noticed by now, I LOVE Shyamalan's films.... but I knew happening would be a critical failure and my box office predictions were dismal (i thought it would be in the range of fifth in the box office....etc.....) but i'm pleasantly surprised.


(Reply to this)
564876
Id. writes:
on Jun 16 2008 01:03 AM

Good to see that The Hulk is decent at least. I was going to see it tomorrow regardless, but it's nice to know. I totally missed it on The Happening, after reading the reviews and watching the trailers, I was anticipating, with dickish glee, a colossal career ending train wreck only, it seems, to have it snatched away at the last moment. Oh well, at least this bodes well for the Avatar movies actually getting made.(Screw you, I know it's a kids show). Also, thanks for the "Banner weekend" line. I've been making horrible puns all day, I can't believe I missed that one.

(Reply to this)
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