It's been two full months since a big 3D toon and a horror film hit the multiplexes so fans of both types of entertainment will rejoice on Friday from the openings of the Disney-Pixar animated adventure Up and Universal's fright flick Drag Me to Hell.
For its tenth animated feature in fourteen years, Pixar goes 3D with its grumpy old man comedy Up which tells of an elderly widower and a young boy who partake in a cross-continental adventure in a flying house. As with previous films from the Disney-owned kings of toonville, this PG-rated offering has attracted glowing reviews from critics. Monsters, Inc. director Pete Docter is back at the helm with Ed Asner and Christopher Plummer heading up the voice cast.
With four of its last five movies winning the animated film Oscar, and with seven consecutive $200M+ grossers, Pixar has remained the industry leader in computer animation with both creative and commercial success. Unless you have a talking rat cooking food, you can count on the company breaking $60M on opening weekend. As Pixar's first 3D film, Up will benefit from higher ticket prices thanks to the surcharges that audiences seem to have no problem paying given the potent numbers displayed this year by so many films requiring the special black glasses.
As with most recent Pixar titles, Up has a strong brand name that consistently brings out audiences, stellar reviews, and a terrific marketing push. But the big difference will be competition as Disney's release date comes unusually close to another big hit pulling in family business. The Night at the Museum sequel will be in its second weekend so many parents and kids will have another film to flock to. With over $70M in its four-day holiday debut, the Ben Stiller pic could steal away roughly $30M this weekend from the same folks Up is targeting. Last summer, WALL•E's opening saw its biggest competition come from Kung Fu Panda's fourth frame take of $11.7M. A year earlier, Ratatouille bowed against the $15.1M sophomore session of Evan Almighty and in 2006, Cars debuted opposite Over the Hedge's $10.2M in its fourth round.
Up will enjoy higher admission prices, but that may be cancelled out by the increased competition. Flying into 3,766 theaters, the animated feature could open with about $62M.

Pixar's Up
After spending this entire decade making two good and one lame Spider-Man films, Sam Raimi returns to the horror genre with the psychological thriller Drag Me to Hell. The PG-13 pic is released by Universal which lately has had a Sony-like track record with its string of successful fright flicks. A year ago, it generated a $21M debut for the home invasion chiller The Strangers and in January it reached $19.8M for the terrorfest The Unborn. Both carried R ratings. In Drag, which should play to a broader age group thanks to the rating, a young woman must fight a curse put on her that will send her to hell for eternity.
Drag has many elements working in its favor that will result in a strong opening weekend performance. The Raimi brand name will help bring in older horror fans while the rating opens the doors to teenagers who will make up a large share of the total audience. The marketing push has been solid and the supernatural storyline makes it a spooky and appealing offering. Plus the last horror film to hit theaters opened two months ago which is an eternity to this crowd. Fans are ready to rally behind a new title that promises thrills and chills. And positive reviews are icing on the cake!
Moviegoers have flocked to scary movies this year making almost every horror pic a winner on opening weekend. Debuts include $21.2M for My Bloody Valentine 3D, $23M for The Haunting in Connecticut, and $40.6M for Friday the 13th. Raimi is no Voorhees, but breaking the $20M mark is certainly possible which is a major win for any film of the genre. Attacking 2,508 theaters, Drag Me to Hell could scare up around $24M this weekend.

Alison Lohman in Drag Me to Hell
With the Pixar army marching into theaters on Friday, reigning box office champ Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian looks to face some major competition for its audience. Families will certainly be tempted by the balloon house, but the Ben Stiller comedy is playing broadly so the non-family crowd may still show up in solid numbers. In 2005, the DreamWorks toon Madagascar opened over the long Memorial Day holiday frame to similar numbers and fell by 41% in the sophomore session. Museum should see a larger decline since it's a sequel and has direct competition. Look for a 45% drop to about $30M giving Battle of the Smithsonian $108M in ten days.
Terminator Salvation arrived on the scene weaker than expected and even fell by $2M from its original opening weekend estimate. Fan support is not strong enough to prevent a steep decline and much of the excitement surrounding the pic has evaporated already. Second weekend dropoffs for recent action sequels launching over the holiday frame include 55% for last year's Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, 62% for 2007's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, and 67% for 2006's X-Men: The Last Stand. Salvation had the Thursday launch like Crystal Skull which will soften the Friday-to-Sunday fall, but it also has the intense upfront audience of X-Men. Warner Bros. should suffer a 60% fall for Terminator Salvation and see sales slide to around $17M putting the 11-day total at $91M. T3 cracked the $100M mark in that many days, but T4 will need more time, despite collecting more money per ticket.
Star Trek is poised to become the first film in ten months to break the $200M mark this weekend. The J.J. Abrams reboot looks to dip by 40% to roughly $14M lifting the cume for Paramount to $209M. Sony's Angels & Demons is on a more downward trend. A 45% decline would put the Tom Hanks sequel at $12M with the total rising to $105M.
LAST YEAR: Cosmo-power propelled the much-anticipated Sex and the City to number one as the New Line film debuted to a stunning $56.8M knocking Crystal Skull down to second in its second weekend with $44.8M. Sex went on to capture $152.6M domestically and a sizzling $410M worldwide. Opening in third with strength was Universal's horror flick The Strangers with $21M on its way to $52.6M. Rounding out the top five were the effects-heavy franchise films Iron Man and The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian with $13.5M and $12.7M, respectively.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.comRelated Items
| Movie: | Drag Me To Hell |
| Celeb: | Edward Asner |
| Christopher Plummer | |
| Sam Raimi | |
| Peter Docter |
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SuckitBaby writes: on May 28 2009 05:57 PM Check your sources buddy, The Unborn was PG-13. (Reply to this) |
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Chris B. writes: on May 28 2009 06:22 PM i hope Drag Me To Hell grosses a billion dollars lol just kidding but i'm glad to see that there is actually a GOOD horror movie coming out in wide release instead of crap like the unborn and sucky remakes of japanese horror movies. i think Drag Me will gross around 30 mil instead of 24 mil. it's pretty sure that Up will take the top spot as Pixar films usually do. (Reply to this) |
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JojoTR writes: on May 28 2009 06:35 PM I can't wait to get to the theaters this weekend and cry my eyes out for Up then I'll laugh and be scared until puke with Drag. Yes, this is a two movie weekend. And that excites me. Up $75 million Drag $43 million (Reply to this) |
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Zen Bullet writes: on May 28 2009 07:04 PM Yeah, I'm in it for the two-movie special this weekend as well. The question is: which to see first? Bitter or sweet? I just realized that Drag Me To Hell will be the first horror film that I've seen in a theater (and I'm from the early Elm Street days). Now if only I can get the 3D Up showings to work out conveniently with the Drag showings. Drag doesn't appear to be on many screens . . . Harrumph! (Reply to this) |
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Holly Jolly writes: on May 28 2009 07:30 PM Tempted to see Drag at the midnight showing. I don't think it will make more than 25 million, as this article suggests, but I can see it having a very slow burn over the next two months. I hope it does really, REALLY well and aids in turning the horror genre out of Jap-adaps and gorno that currently flood the market. (Reply to this) |
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Chris B. writes: on May 28 2009 07:37 PM my theater doesn't have midnight showings for Drag Me To Hell :( (Reply to this) |
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RE4P3R writes: on May 28 2009 08:12 PM Up - 58m Drag Me to Hell - 30m That's what I'm expecting. (Reply to this) |
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davenet writes: on May 28 2009 11:48 PM MY PREDICTIONS TOP 5 THIS WEEKEND 1) UP (68 MILLION) 2) NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM 2 (33.7 MILLION) 3) DRAG ME TO HELL (31 MILLION) 4) TERMINATOR SALVATION (24.4 MILLION) 5) STAR TREK (16.1 MILLION) (Reply to this) |
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ledawg1138 writes: on May 29 2009 06:38 PM Look, it's going to be slooooow until Transformers 2, so "Hell" and "Up" have plebty of time to make their dough. (Reply to this) |
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Bob S. writes: on May 29 2009 06:44 PM In reply to this comment (#2522567) I think your estimates are really close to what I'm expecting, though I think TERMINATOR: SALVATION will have a little less. (Reply to this) |
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Bloody Mathias writes: on May 30 2009 06:21 AM Up - $70 m Meuseum - $30 m Drag - $23 m Terminator - $20 m (Reply to this) |
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sportzboy698 writes: on May 30 2009 08:15 AM Up- $73 m Museum- $32 m Terminator- $21 m Drag- $18 m Star Trek- $16 m I really do want Drag to do god, I just don't think it was marketed well enough. As for Up, well I'm seeing it in 3 hours and I can't wait!!! (Reply to this) |
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Kevin R. writes: on May 30 2009 10:35 PM drag me to hell was awful. i was very excited to see it. im normally not a fan of horror flicks, but the reviews made it seem as if this could be something special. it was bloody awful. i'd have to say the ending was the worst part; it was completely predictable. i wont give that away. but ill give an example of how bad this movie is. someone attempts to get into a car but its locked so she throws a brick through the window. this would be ok, but instead of reaching in and unlocking it, she just opens it with the outside handle. do not see this movie (Reply to this) |
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