Box Office Guru Preview: Golden Compass Sets Course For #1 Debut
Atonement, Juno open in limited release.
New Line hopes to breathe some life into the North American box office with the launch of its pricey adventure film The Golden Compass which stands as the frame's only new wide release. Directed by Chris Weitz (About a Boy), the PG-13 film aims to capture a large crowd including the family audience and fans of sci-fi and fantasy. Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig, who proved in the summer flop The Invasion that their names only carry so much commercial weight, reunite to star in the effects-heavy film.
Working in its favor is the fact that all other studios have avoided programming their major offerings onto this weekend's schedule. In fact it is quite rare to see two consecutive frames with only one national opener each. Media attention is concentrated on it this week and with multiplexes dumping their aging November flops, Compass will secure extra screens. The studio's marketing push has been powerful and awareness is high which makes sense as New Line is hoping for a new fantasy franchise that can keep the cash rolling in for years to come. Teens and young adults who frequent the multiplexes the most should come out in solid numbers since they've seen every other worthy film already. Older adults will be a little harder to reach since holiday shopping is a major distraction on weekends right now plus reviews for Compass have not exactly been stellar.
Although the property will target many of the same folks who have dropped billions on fantasy smashes like The Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter, and The Chronicles of Narnia, the source material is not as popular plus there is already backlash from some in the religious community for the anti-Christian material in the Philip Pullman books. Reaching the $65.6M opening of Narnia from this very weekend two years ago will be impossible. Instead, a debut closer to the $27.5M of Beowulf last month could be in order since there may be much overlap. Compass has more appeal for younger kids and females so a bigger bow should result. Opening in over 3,000 theaters, The Golden Compass might premiere to the tune of $33M this weekend.
Nicole Kidman in The Golden Compass
With most of the big boys taking the weekend off from releasing films wide, indie distribs will once again seize the opportunity to platform their end-of-year pics and begin limited runs for possible kudos contenders. By law, you can't have an awards season without at least one costume drama so Focus Features joins forces with Keira Knightley with Atonement which bows on Friday in 26 sites. The R-rated period piece also stars James McAvoy and Vanessa Redgrave and has already grossed $31M overseas with over two-thirds of that total coming from the U.K. since its launch there in early September.
James McAvoy and Keira Knightley in Atonement
Fox Searchlight counters in seven theaters with its teen pregnancy comedy Juno starring Michael Cera, Jason Bateman, Jennifer Garner, and Ellen Page in the title role. The PG-13 coming-of-age pic opened on Wednesday in New York and Los Angeles and is director Jason Reitman's follow-up to Thank You For Smoking which grossed $24.8M for Fox Searchlight in the spring of 2006. Reviews have been strong across the board for both Juno and Atonement.
Ellen Page and Olivia Thirlby in Juno
After back to back stints of wearing the box office crown, the princess comedy Enchanted is now preparing to take a step back this weekend thanks to the arrival of Queen Kidman. The Disney hit will see some formidable competition for kids, but the overall drop should not be too large. A 35% slide to around $10.5M could result. That would give Enchanted a charming $83M after 19 days of play.
With girls lining up for Giselle and company, their brothers have been taking a historical adventure with the computer-animated action pic Beowulf which has been holding its own since its debut. Golden Compass will also be a threat since there is much audience overlap. But Beowulf's good legs suggest that a drop of 35% could be in order here as well. That would leave the Paramount project with about $5M pushing the cume up to $76M.
Sony's holiday reunion film This Christmas and Fox's assassin thriller Hitman both witnessed larger sophomore declines so a fall of 40% each should occur this weekend. Christmas would take in just under $5M for a $42M total while Hitman should bank $3.5M for a $36M sum.
LAST YEAR: Mel Gibson scored his second straight number one opening for a historical foreign language film he directed with Apocalypto which debuted on top with $15M. The Buena Vista release went on to capture a solid $50.9M. Three-time champ Happy Feet was bumped down to second with $12.9M in its fourth frame. Sony's romantic comedy The Holiday bowed in third with $12.8M for Sony. The Cameron Diaz-Kate Winslet pic went on to gross $63.2M domestically and a stunning $200M worldwide. Studio stablemate Casino Royale slipped to fourth with $8.9M. Warner Bros. launched its action thriller Blood Diamond in fifth with a mediocre $8.6M on its way to $57.4M from North America and $171M globally. Opening in seventh was the studio's other new wide release of the frame, the family comedy Unaccompanied Minors, with only $5.8M leading to a weak $16.6M final.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com
Working in its favor is the fact that all other studios have avoided programming their major offerings onto this weekend's schedule. In fact it is quite rare to see two consecutive frames with only one national opener each. Media attention is concentrated on it this week and with multiplexes dumping their aging November flops, Compass will secure extra screens. The studio's marketing push has been powerful and awareness is high which makes sense as New Line is hoping for a new fantasy franchise that can keep the cash rolling in for years to come. Teens and young adults who frequent the multiplexes the most should come out in solid numbers since they've seen every other worthy film already. Older adults will be a little harder to reach since holiday shopping is a major distraction on weekends right now plus reviews for Compass have not exactly been stellar.
Although the property will target many of the same folks who have dropped billions on fantasy smashes like The Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter, and The Chronicles of Narnia, the source material is not as popular plus there is already backlash from some in the religious community for the anti-Christian material in the Philip Pullman books. Reaching the $65.6M opening of Narnia from this very weekend two years ago will be impossible. Instead, a debut closer to the $27.5M of Beowulf last month could be in order since there may be much overlap. Compass has more appeal for younger kids and females so a bigger bow should result. Opening in over 3,000 theaters, The Golden Compass might premiere to the tune of $33M this weekend.
Nicole Kidman in The Golden Compass
With most of the big boys taking the weekend off from releasing films wide, indie distribs will once again seize the opportunity to platform their end-of-year pics and begin limited runs for possible kudos contenders. By law, you can't have an awards season without at least one costume drama so Focus Features joins forces with Keira Knightley with Atonement which bows on Friday in 26 sites. The R-rated period piece also stars James McAvoy and Vanessa Redgrave and has already grossed $31M overseas with over two-thirds of that total coming from the U.K. since its launch there in early September.
James McAvoy and Keira Knightley in Atonement
Fox Searchlight counters in seven theaters with its teen pregnancy comedy Juno starring Michael Cera, Jason Bateman, Jennifer Garner, and Ellen Page in the title role. The PG-13 coming-of-age pic opened on Wednesday in New York and Los Angeles and is director Jason Reitman's follow-up to Thank You For Smoking which grossed $24.8M for Fox Searchlight in the spring of 2006. Reviews have been strong across the board for both Juno and Atonement.
Ellen Page and Olivia Thirlby in Juno
After back to back stints of wearing the box office crown, the princess comedy Enchanted is now preparing to take a step back this weekend thanks to the arrival of Queen Kidman. The Disney hit will see some formidable competition for kids, but the overall drop should not be too large. A 35% slide to around $10.5M could result. That would give Enchanted a charming $83M after 19 days of play.
With girls lining up for Giselle and company, their brothers have been taking a historical adventure with the computer-animated action pic Beowulf which has been holding its own since its debut. Golden Compass will also be a threat since there is much audience overlap. But Beowulf's good legs suggest that a drop of 35% could be in order here as well. That would leave the Paramount project with about $5M pushing the cume up to $76M.
Sony's holiday reunion film This Christmas and Fox's assassin thriller Hitman both witnessed larger sophomore declines so a fall of 40% each should occur this weekend. Christmas would take in just under $5M for a $42M total while Hitman should bank $3.5M for a $36M sum.
LAST YEAR: Mel Gibson scored his second straight number one opening for a historical foreign language film he directed with Apocalypto which debuted on top with $15M. The Buena Vista release went on to capture a solid $50.9M. Three-time champ Happy Feet was bumped down to second with $12.9M in its fourth frame. Sony's romantic comedy The Holiday bowed in third with $12.8M for Sony. The Cameron Diaz-Kate Winslet pic went on to gross $63.2M domestically and a stunning $200M worldwide. Studio stablemate Casino Royale slipped to fourth with $8.9M. Warner Bros. launched its action thriller Blood Diamond in fifth with a mediocre $8.6M on its way to $57.4M from North America and $171M globally. Opening in seventh was the studio's other new wide release of the frame, the family comedy Unaccompanied Minors, with only $5.8M leading to a weak $16.6M final.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com
Related Items
(1-12 of 12 posts) | Reply
 on Dec 06 2007 05:47 PM A 33 million weekend for a film with a budget of 250 is pretty bad. Oh Well. I am Legend in 8 days people. (Reply to this) |
 on Dec 06 2007 06:06 PM Golden Compass has a budget of $150 million, not $250 million. Golden Compass: $40 million. Enchanted: $10 million. Beowulf: $5 million. (Reply to this) |
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on Dec 06 2007 06:22 PM The Golden Compass cost 250 million, not 150 million. hear is proof. Hear is the varity Report. New Line are reporting that only half of the theatres showing TGC were sold-out for yesterdays preview showings. Word of Mouth on various forums has also so far been less then amazing. This is not good news for a movie with a $250 million budget. Have New Line bet their future on a lame horse? h (Reply to this) |
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on Dec 06 2007 06:41 PM Hear is the director of the film saying what the budget was. Budget Information The official production budget for The Golden Compass was $150 million. According to the LA Times (August 10, 2007 - registration required), the movie "soared over its original $180-million budget because of re-shoots". The Philippine Daily Inquirer (August 19, 2007) quoted Nestor Nieves, New Line's executive vice president for international sales as saying, "The studio has spent $205 million on it [so far] ... The special effects alone cost over $80 million." The Hollywood Reporter (November 6, 2007 - registration required) mentions the $150 million production budget, and says that New Line and "a bevy of blue-chip brands ... Are committing more than $50 million in marketing and promo support for Compass". The studio is quoted as estimating that the "[t]otal value of brand-backed marketing is $120 million." Update (11/30/2007): CHUD.com (November 29, 2007) quotes Chris Weitz and Sam Elliott as saying the budget "was 250 million." This is the number we are using. h (Reply to this) |
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on Dec 06 2007 08:10 PM I predict 62 million for the opening weekend. No such thing as negative press!! (Reply to this) |
 on Dec 06 2007 11:01 PM In reply to this comment (#1333753) F**K YEAH!!!!!!!!!! (Reply to this) |
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on Dec 07 2007 03:35 AM I hope Golden Compass does well despite the backlash. I just don't understand how a cheesy disney movie like Enchanted gets knock-out reviews but the Golden Compass is slaughtered by critics. I smell foul play (Reply to this) |
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on Dec 07 2007 04:35 AM In reply to this comment (#1334359) I do not know if you have seen the Golden Compass but the movie is a mess. that is why Enchanted got better reviews. It is a faaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr better film. (Reply to this) |
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on Dec 07 2007 05:38 AM i saw like 10 previews for Enchanted...you wanna know why critics gave it so much praise? one word folks...cocaine. hollywood is RIPE with it... i'm not even sure i wanna see this movie...but i do love p2ssing off bigots who stand in front of movie theaters DEMANDING you don't see a flick because it bashes anything christian. thank you god...for making snow, so i can make snowballs...to throw... (Reply to this) |
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on Dec 07 2007 08:13 AM In reply to this comment (#1334881) I don't think that word means what you think it be meaning. Bigots aren't actually people that protest the bashing of others or themselves, A bigot is someone who bashes someone else. By your definition all the holocaust survivors who spoke out against the holocaust are bigots. Now if people were out say protesting atheists then they'd be bigots or say throwing snowballs at people because they're Christians and protesting a perceived slight, that would make you a bigot. I hate those damn double edge swords don't you? (Reply to this) |
 on Dec 07 2007 01:22 PM In reply to this comment (#1335164) Well said, Big Brother. (Reply to this) |
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on Jan 14 2008 12:43 PM In reply to this comment (#1333818) daycare, you better check that page again because a few days later Wietz was actually qouted as saying a lower number and it was reported to that website. the page was updated to add this: Update (12/2/2007): Chris Weitz is quoted in Film Monthly (December 2, 2007) as saying "around $200 million would be a bare estimate." Based on this, and the quote from Nestor Nieves above, we are using $205 million as our estimate for the final cost of the (Reply to this) |
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